---
title: "STARLIGHT case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "STARLIGHT ($6.00) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 102.02% from 70 items with odds, observed 89.12% over 444 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/starlight
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:25Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [STARLIGHT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/starlight)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · STARLIGHT

A case on DROP.SKIN (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/starlight?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/starlight?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/starlight) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/starlight?window=all)

Price · $6.00

Advertised RTP · 102.02% · EV $6.12 from 70 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.12% · 444 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.44% ±34.97 117 openings

7 days · 89.93% ±18.68 413 openings

30 days · 89.12% ±18.02 444 openings

since tracking started · 89.12% ±18.02 444 openings

49.0% 84.5% 120.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/starlight?window=24h) | 117 | 84.44% ±35.0 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/starlight?window=7d) | 413 | 89.93% ±18.7 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/starlight) | 444 | 89.12% ±18.0 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/starlight?window=all) | 444 | 89.12% ±18.0 | −1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 70 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 444 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 2,018 | $184 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,638 | $149 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 1,622 | $147 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,346 | $122 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 1,319 | $120 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,232 | $112 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 1,216 | $111 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $90.96 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 982 | $89.25 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 642 | $58.41 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 629 | $57.23 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 515 | $46.84 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 466 | $42.37 | 1.5% | 4 | 1.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 403 | $36.60 | 1.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 371 | $33.77 | 1.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.84× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 368 | $33.49 | 1.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) | 1 in 355 | $32.32 | 1.5% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.60× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 1 in 355 | $32.27 | 1.5% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.60× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 336 | $30.59 | 1.5% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 334 | $30.32 | 1.5% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.50× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 593 | $27.43 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 543 | $23.68 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 509 | $21.22 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 504 | $20.93 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 1 in 503 | $20.84 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 503 | $20.81 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 497 | $20.43 | 0.7% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 1 in 494 | $20.20 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-battle-scarred) | 1 in 492 | $20.09 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 416 | $15.16 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 406 | $14.58 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 406 | $14.55 | 0.6% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 402 | $14.33 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 397 | $14.04 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 1 in 395 | $13.90 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 391 | $13.70 | 0.6% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.64× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 391 | $13.70 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.76× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 388 | $13.52 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.87× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 385 | $13.34 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.87× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-field-tested) | 1 in 384 | $13.28 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.86× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 351 | $11.44 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 290 | $8.34 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.31× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 284 | $8.04 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 252 | $6.59 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 246 | $6.34 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.66× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 245 | $6.29 | 0.4% | 9 | 1.8 | 4.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 238 | $6.00 | 0.4% | 15 | 1.9 | 8.06× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $5.66 | 3.6% | 12 | 17.2 | 0.70× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $5.59 | 3.5% | 18 | 17.2 | 1.04× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $5.18 | 3.3% | 17 | 17.5 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $4.74 | 3.1% | 18 | 17.8 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $4.73 | 3.1% | 19 | 17.8 | 1.07× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $4.56 | 3.0% | 15 | 17.9 | 0.84× |
| [MAG-7 \| Memento (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-memento-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $4.27 | 2.8% | 18 | 18.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $4.21 | 2.8% | 19 | 18.0 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $4.02 | 2.7% | 21 | 18.1 | 1.16× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $3.91 | 2.6% | 21 | 18.1 | 1.16× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $3.88 | 2.6% | 18 | 18.1 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $3.77 | 2.5% | 12 | 18.1 | 0.66× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $3.68 | 2.5% | 18 | 18.1 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $3.62 | 2.4% | 18 | 18.1 | 0.99× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $3.43 | 2.3% | 17 | 18.1 | 0.94× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $3.35 | 2.2% | 16 | 18.0 | 0.89× |
| [Glock-18 \| Red Tire (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-red-tire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $3.00 | 2.0% | 13 | 17.8 | 0.73× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $2.91 | 1.9% | 18 | 17.7 | 1.02× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $2.67 | 1.7% | 12 | 17.4 | 0.69× |
| [Negev \| Bratatat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-bratatat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $2.21 | 1.3% | 16 | 16.5 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $2.19 | 1.3% | 12 | 16.5 | 0.73× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $1.75 | 1.0% | 15 | 15.0 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $0.98 | 0.4% | 15 | 10.2 | 1.48× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/starlight/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=starlight)

[AWP | Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) [Cam](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Cam) $6.00 $14.55 2.43x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) [Cam](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Cam) $6.00 $4.02 0.67x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-battle-scarred) [Cam](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Cam) $6.00 $5.59 0.93x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) [nemytchenkos](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/nemytchenkos) $6.00 $3.87 0.64x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Powercore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-factory-new) [nemytchenkos](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/nemytchenkos) $6.00 $3.35 0.56x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) [nemytchenkos](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/nemytchenkos) $6.00 $5.66 0.94x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC

[P250 | Inferno (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-minimal-wear) [nemytchenkos](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/nemytchenkos) $6.00 $0.98 0.16x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC

[MP9 | Food Chain (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-well-worn) [nemytchenkos](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/nemytchenkos) $6.00 $3.68 0.61x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-field-tested) [nemytchenkos](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/nemytchenkos) $6.00 $1.75 0.29x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC

[M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) [HyperionRax](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/HyperionRax) $6.00 $3.91 0.65x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $6.00 | 102.02% | 70 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $6.00 | 101.65% | 70 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $6.00 | 104.68% | 70 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $6.00 | 104.85% | 70 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $6.00 | 103.52% | 70 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $6.00 | 102.90% | 70 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $6.00 | 102.39% | 70 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $6.00 | 103.27% | 70 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $6.00 | 104.11% | 70 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $6.00 | 106.57% | 70 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.0% red 0.3% restricted 21.2% classified 21.3% pink 5.1% #d32ee6 4.8% mil spec 19.1% Legendary 4.1% Classified 4.1% Mythical 10.1% Uncommon 4.0% Restricted 4.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 102.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $102.02 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt