---
title: "SUBZERO case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SUBZERO ($5.98) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 98.38% from 59 items with odds, observed 76.77% over 935 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/subzero
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [SUBZERO](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/subzero)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · SUBZERO

A case on DROP.SKIN (bestseller), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/subzero?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/subzero?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/subzero) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/subzero?window=all)

Price · $5.98

Advertised RTP · 98.38% · EV $5.88 from 59 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 76.77% · 935 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 24 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 117 openings · below min

7 days · 77.12% ±18.41 844 openings

30 days · 76.77% ±17.43 935 openings

since tracking started · 76.77% ±17.43 935 openings

44.0% 94.5% 145.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 97.17% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (59.34% – 94.20%, 935 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/subzero?window=24h) | 117 | 94.42% ±49.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/subzero?window=7d) | 844 | 77.12% ±18.4 | −2.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/subzero) | 935 | 76.77% ±17.4 | −2.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/subzero?window=all) | 935 | 76.77% ±17.4 | −2.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 59 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 935 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 1,152 | $201 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-field-tested) | 1 in 977 | $170 | 3.0% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 959 | $167 | 3.0% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 800 | $139 | 3.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 657 | $114 | 3.0% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 551 | $95.96 | 3.0% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) | 1 in 520 | $90.51 | 3.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 515 | $89.60 | 3.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 469 | $81.66 | 3.0% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 437 | $76.02 | 3.0% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 397 | $69.09 | 3.0% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.27× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 374 | $65.14 | 3.0% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.60× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 371 | $64.59 | 3.0% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 293 | $51.03 | 3.0% | 5 | 3.2 | 1.57× |
| [Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 237 | $41.30 | 3.0% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.27× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 203 | $35.27 | 3.0% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 199 | $34.59 | 3.0% | 7 | 4.7 | 1.49× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 196 | $34.14 | 3.0% | 8 | 4.8 | 1.68× |
| [Souvenir Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-caution-field-tested) | 1 in 261 | $28.46 | 1.9% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.12× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 245 | $25.67 | 1.8% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.31× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 234 | $23.66 | 1.7% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.75× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pink-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 227 | $22.53 | 1.7% | 8 | 4.1 | 1.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 1 in 212 | $20.20 | 1.6% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.14× |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 210 | $19.86 | 1.6% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 187 | $16.36 | 1.5% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.60× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) | 1 in 156 | $12.03 | 1.3% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.67× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 141 | $10.22 | 1.2% | 4 | 6.6 | 0.60× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 126 | $8.49 | 1.1% | 10 | 7.4 | 1.35× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 113 | $7.03 | 1.1% | 9 | 8.3 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-photic-zone-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $6.90 | 1.1% | 15 | 8.4 | 1.79× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 109 | $6.62 | 1.0% | 9 | 8.6 | 1.05× |
| [Galil AR \| Hunting Blind (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-hunting-blind-factory-new) | 1 in 108 | $6.50 | 1.0% | 6 | 8.7 | 0.69× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 106 | $6.34 | 1.0% | 5 | 8.8 | 0.57× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $4.79 | 1.9% | 24 | 21.4 | 1.12× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $4.70 | 1.9% | 30 | 21.7 | 1.38× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $4.20 | 1.8% | 0 | 23.8 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-visions-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $4.17 | 1.8% | 19 | 24.0 | 0.79× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $3.93 | 1.8% | 24 | 25.1 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Water Sigil (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-water-sigil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $3.92 | 1.8% | 32 | 25.1 | 1.27× |
| [USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $3.62 | 1.8% | 36 | 26.6 | 1.35× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $2.76 | 1.6% | 34 | 31.4 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-last-dive-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $2.63 | 1.5% | 31 | 32.1 | 0.97× |
| [SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $2.39 | 1.5% | 44 | 33.5 | 1.31× |
| [MP5-SD \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $2.12 | 1.4% | 41 | 35.2 | 1.17× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.68 | 1.1% | 40 | 37.5 | 1.07× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Indigo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-indigo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $1.34 | 0.9% | 39 | 38.6 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.13 | 0.8% | 37 | 38.6 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyberforce-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.00 | 0.7% | 30 | 38.1 | 0.79× |
| [FAMAS \| Teardown (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-teardown-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.97 | 0.7% | 41 | 38.0 | 1.08× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $0.73 | 0.5% | 38 | 35.5 | 1.07× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.72 | 0.5% | 29 | 35.3 | 0.82× |
| [G3SG1 \| Keeping Tabs (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-keeping-tabs-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $0.64 | 0.4% | 37 | 33.8 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $0.64 | 0.4% | 22 | 33.7 | 0.65× |
| [MAC-10 \| Monkeyflage (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $0.59 | 0.4% | 25 | 32.6 | 0.77× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Grim (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-grim-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $0.58 | 0.3% | 32 | 32.4 | 0.99× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $0.57 | 0.3% | 24 | 32.0 | 0.75× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Turf (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-turf-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.45 | 0.2% | 29 | 28.2 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Turf (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-turf-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $0.37 | 0.2% | 20 | 24.2 | 0.83× |
| [P250 \| Drought (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-drought-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $0.31 | 0.1% | 14 | 21.1 | 0.66× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/subzero/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=subzero)

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-battle-scarred) [diyarcan](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/diyarcan) $5.98 $10.22 1.71x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Capillary (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-capillary-field-tested) [HyperionRax](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/HyperionRax) $5.98 $1.68 0.28x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Osiris (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-minimal-wear) [BongHits](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/BongHits) $5.98 $2.76 0.46x 2026-11-11 12:06 UTC

[StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-water-sigil-minimal-wear) [BongHits](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/BongHits) $5.98 $3.92 0.66x 2026-11-11 12:05 UTC

[FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-teardown-factory-new) [Est\_Sipsik](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Est_Sipsik) $5.98 $0.97 0.16x 2026-11-11 11:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-photic-zone-factory-new) [Est\_Sipsik](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Est_Sipsik) $5.98 $6.90 1.15x 2026-11-11 11:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Pulse (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-pulse-field-tested) [Est\_Sipsik](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Est_Sipsik) $5.98 $1.13 0.19x 2026-11-11 11:42 UTC

[SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-minimal-wear) [Carlsson1](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Carlsson1) $5.98 $2.39 0.40x 2026-11-11 11:16 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Capillary (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-capillary-field-tested) [nemytchenkos](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/nemytchenkos) $5.98 $1.68 0.28x 2026-11-11 11:04 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Indigo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-indigo-battle-scarred) [nemytchenkos](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/nemytchenkos) $5.98 $1.34 0.22x 2026-11-11 11:04 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $5.98 | 98.38% | 59 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $5.98 | 97.47% | 59 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $5.98 | 98.03% | 59 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $5.98 | 98.67% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $5.98 | 96.91% | 59 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $5.98 | 96.15% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $5.98 | 98.82% | 59 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $5.98 | 95.17% | 59 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $5.98 | 93.98% | 59 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $5.98 | 98.75% | 59 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.7% pink 0.6% restricted 2.7% Ancient 0.7% industrial 3.1% mil spec 3.8% classified 7.7% Classified 0.3% Mil Spec Grade 4.5% Restricted 4.3% violet 11.2% Mythical 0.8% blue 8.3% consumer 0.9% #8847ff 4.9% Rare 6.2% Industrial Grade 3.8% milspec 10.5% #777777 4.1% #4b69ff 14.2% Mil Spec 3.6% Consumer Grade 2.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 98.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $98.38 on average: an expected loss of $1.62 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt