---
title: "VANGUARD case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "VANGUARD ($4.99) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 85.32% from 47 items with odds, observed 83.13% over 53 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/vanguard
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [VANGUARD](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/vanguard)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · VANGUARD

A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/vanguard?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/vanguard?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/vanguard) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/vanguard?window=all)

Price · $4.99

Advertised RTP · 85.32% · EV $4.26 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.13% · 53 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 13 openings · below min

7 days · 50 openings · below min

30 days · 53 openings · below min

since tracking started · 53 openings · below min

-0.5% 123.3% 247.0%

**Small sample.** 53 openings and 11.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/vanguard?window=24h) | 13 | 93.49% ±152.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/vanguard?window=7d) | 50 | 80.78% ±79.4 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/vanguard) | 53 | 83.13% ±77.4 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/vanguard?window=all) | 53 | 83.13% ±77.4 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 53 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,261 | $981 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 8,183 | $713 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-well-worn) | 1 in 1,497 | $130 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-well-worn) | 1 in 1,303 | $114 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 678 | $59.05 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 547 | $47.65 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Tranquility (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-tranquility-minimal-wear) | 1 in 478 | $41.64 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 466 | $40.57 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-minimal-wear) | 1 in 396 | $34.53 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-factory-new) | 1 in 369 | $32.14 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-cardiac-minimal-wear) | 1 in 329 | $28.67 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) | 1 in 326 | $28.39 | 2.0% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-well-worn) | 1 in 303 | $26.43 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 297 | $25.87 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 383 | $15.29 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) | 1 in 380 | $15.11 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-threat-detected-field-tested) | 1 in 377 | $14.90 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Airlock (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-airlock-well-worn) | 1 in 324 | $11.55 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-blue-fissure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 308 | $10.61 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-devourer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 273 | $8.68 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 255 | $7.79 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-minimal-wear) | 1 in 249 | $7.46 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-phosphor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 243 | $7.16 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 236 | $6.84 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 235 | $6.79 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-black-limba-field-tested) | 1 in 211 | $5.68 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 208 | $5.52 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 206 | $5.43 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Tatter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-field-tested) | 1 in 201 | $5.24 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $4.35 | 5.2% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $4.35 | 5.2% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.47× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-urban-shock-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $3.92 | 4.8% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.44× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $3.55 | 4.4% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $3.52 | 4.4% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $3.19 | 4.0% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.40× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $3.15 | 4.0% | 5 | 2.9 | 1.75× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| X-Ray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $2.91 | 3.7% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.05× |
| [Souvenir Sawed-Off \| Amber Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sawed-off-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $2.89 | 3.7% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× |
| [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Contractor (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-contractor-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $2.87 | 3.6% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-reboot-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $2.61 | 3.3% | 5 | 2.9 | 1.75× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $2.58 | 3.3% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Dart (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $2.23 | 2.8% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [MAC-10 \| Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $1.89 | 2.3% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heat-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $1.64 | 1.9% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.77× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Delusion (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-delusion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $1.59 | 1.8% | 6 | 2.6 | 2.35× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Yorick (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-yorick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.07 | 1.0% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-mummys-rot-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $0.91 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/vanguard/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=vanguard)

[StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) [shcherbakovnikitav](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/shcherbakovnikitav) $4.99 $28.97 5.81x 2026-11-11 08:24 UTC

[MP9 | Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) [yushAAA](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/yushAAA) $4.99 $3.52 0.70x 2026-11-10 20:38 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-x-ray-factory-new) [yushAAA](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/yushAAA) $4.99 $2.94 0.59x 2026-11-10 20:38 UTC

[StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-urban-shock-field-tested) [yushAAA](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/yushAAA) $4.99 $3.94 0.79x 2026-11-10 20:38 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-delusion-minimal-wear) [yushAAA](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/yushAAA) $4.99 $1.84 0.37x 2026-11-10 20:34 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-delusion-minimal-wear) [yushAAA](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/yushAAA) $4.99 $1.84 0.37x 2026-11-10 20:33 UTC

[USP-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) [yushAAA](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/yushAAA) $4.99 $3.14 0.63x 2026-11-10 20:33 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-delusion-minimal-wear) [yushAAA](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/yushAAA) $4.99 $1.84 0.37x 2026-11-10 20:33 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) [yushAAA](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/yushAAA) $4.99 $4.35 0.87x 2026-11-10 20:32 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-well-worn) [DARLOK](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/DARLOK) $4.99 $3.19 0.64x 2026-11-10 17:25 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $4.99 | 85.32% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $4.99 | 87.84% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $4.99 | 90.40% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $4.99 | 87.90% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $4.99 | 89.87% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $4.99 | 86.50% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $4.99 | 85.44% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $4.99 | 87.39% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $4.99 | 90.61% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $4.99 | 88.04% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% #eb4b4b 0.1% covert knife 0.2% Legendary 0.6% mil spec 1.0% pink 5.9% restricted 7.0% classified 1.4% Mil Spec Grade 23.8% milspec 5.9% Classified 0.4% blue 5.8% Rare 5.1% #8847ff 16.0% violet 5.4% Restricted 10.8% Consumer Grade 10.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.32 on average: an expected loss of $14.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt