---
title: "VENOM case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "VENOM ($31.28) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 96.01% from 52 items with odds, observed 98.15% over 65 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/venom
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [VENOM](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/venom)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · VENOM

A case on DROP.SKIN (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/venom?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/venom?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/venom) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/venom?window=all)

Price · $31.28

Advertised RTP · 96.01% · EV $30.03 from 52 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.15% · 65 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 23 openings · below min

7 days · 59 openings · below min

30 days · 65 openings · below min

since tracking started · 65 openings · below min

55.0% 134.0% 213.0%

**Small sample.** 65 openings and 10.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/venom?window=24h) | 23 | 142.56% ±69.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/venom?window=7d) | 59 | 101.61% ±44.4 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/venom) | 65 | 98.15% ±42.4 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/venom?window=all) | 65 | 98.15% ±42.4 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 52 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 65 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 416 | $681 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 223 | $364 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 153 | $250 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 138 | $225 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 134 | $219 | 5.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 98 | $160 | 5.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) | 1 in 493 | $138 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 482 | $133 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 451 | $119 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 447 | $117 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 420 | $106 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $97.57 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 363 | $82.73 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 339 | $74.06 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 298 | $59.52 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-well-worn) | 1 in 292 | $57.75 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 276 | $52.64 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 271 | $50.80 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 266 | $49.46 | 0.6% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 260 | $47.39 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 247 | $43.74 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-zirka-field-tested) | 1 in 225 | $37.42 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 224 | $37.09 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-well-worn) | 1 in 223 | $36.91 | 0.6% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 221 | $36.17 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 216 | $34.99 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 212 | $33.94 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 212 | $33.77 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 1 in 210 | $33.27 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $30.59 | 3.9% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $28.08 | 3.7% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.39× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $27.82 | 3.6% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $24.81 | 3.3% | 5 | 2.6 | 1.90× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $24.10 | 3.3% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× |
| [P250 \| Splash (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $22.47 | 3.1% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.49× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $21.66 | 3.0% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $21.60 | 3.0% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $21.36 | 3.0% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| [P250 \| Red Rock (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $18.99 | 2.7% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.46× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $17.89 | 2.5% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $17.15 | 2.4% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $16.92 | 2.4% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.73× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $16.65 | 2.3% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.09× |
| [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $16.19 | 2.3% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $12.05 | 1.6% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.51× |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $11.53 | 1.5% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× |
| [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $8.98 | 1.1% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $8.40 | 1.0% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $8.13 | 1.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $5.94 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $4.62 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $3.57 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.80× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/venom/info`, 11 Nov, 14:22 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=venom)

[M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-minimal-wear) [Burzu](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Burzu) $31.28 $8.98 0.29x 2026-11-11 06:40 UTC

[M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) [Burzu](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Burzu) $31.28 $30.59 0.98x 2026-11-11 06:10 UTC

[AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) [Burzu](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Burzu) $31.28 $59.52 1.90x 2026-11-11 06:10 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [Burzu](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Burzu) $31.28 $219 7.01x 2026-11-11 05:57 UTC

[M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-minimal-wear) [❣Sơc𝒉𝚊n❣](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/%E2%9D%A3S%C6%A1c%F0%9D%92%89%F0%9D%9A%8An%E2%9D%A3) $31.28 $8.49 0.27x 2026-11-11 01:45 UTC

[P250 | Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) [qzo](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/qzo) $31.28 $8.09 0.26x 2026-11-11 01:39 UTC

[Glock-18 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-field-tested) [MaDggvp](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MaDggvp) $31.28 $16.19 0.52x 2026-11-11 00:20 UTC

[AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-minimal-wear) [MaDggvp](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MaDggvp) $31.28 $12.10 0.39x 2026-11-11 00:17 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-battle-scarred) [MaDggvp](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MaDggvp) $31.28 $3.39 0.11x 2026-11-11 00:13 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) [MaDggvp](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/MaDggvp) $31.28 $25.27 0.81x 2026-11-11 00:13 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $31.28 | 96.01% | 52 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $31.28 | 94.45% | 52 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $31.28 | 95.67% | 52 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $31.28 | 97.87% | 52 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $31.28 | 98.06% | 52 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $31.28 | 98.44% | 52 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $31.28 | 100.57% | 52 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $31.28 | 98.38% | 52 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $31.28 | 99.53% | 52 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $31.28 | 100.26% | 52 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 17.1% #eb4b4b 0.4% sunny 0.9% covert knife 1.0% rare 1.0% restricted 25.1% Covert 0.2% Classified 0.7% classified 9.0% Immortal 0.4% #d32ee6 0.4% Legendary 4.1% Restricted 4.2% blue 4.2% violet 7.8% industrial 12.0% Mythical 5.9% mil spec 3.0% pink 2.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 96.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $96.01 on average: an expected loss of $3.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt