---
title: "VICE-LOVER case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "VICE-LOVER ($299.99) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 65.03% from 54 items with odds, observed 67.82% over 4 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/vice-lover
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [VICE-LOVER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/vice-lover)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · VICE-LOVER

A case on DROP.SKIN (bestseller), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/vice-lover?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/vice-lover?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/vice-lover) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/vice-lover?window=all)

Price · $299.99

Advertised RTP · 65.03% · EV $195.09 from 54 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 67.82% · 4 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 33.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 94.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 1 openings · below min

7 days · 1 openings · below min

30 days · 4 openings · below min

since tracking started · 4 openings · below min

-0.5% 71.5% 143.5%

**Small sample.** 4 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/vice-lover?window=24h) | 1 | 67.78% ±74.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/vice-lover?window=7d) | 1 | 67.78% ±74.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/vice-lover) | 4 | 67.82% ±38.0 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/vice-lover?window=all) | 4 | 67.82% ±38.0 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 393 | $1,002 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 372 | $912 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 371 | $910 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 355 | $844 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 346 | $809 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 300 | $639 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 283 | $578 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 266 | $521 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 261 | $504 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 247 | $460 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 228 | $403 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 226 | $398 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 219 | $378 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 218 | $376 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) | 1 in 217 | $372 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 213 | $360 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $270 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $261 | 3.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $256 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $246 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $237 | 3.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $235 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $230 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $228 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $215 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $211 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $211 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $206 | 2.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $206 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $193 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $192 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $186 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $186 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $182 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $173 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $169 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $168 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $163 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $158 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $157 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $152 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $147 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $137 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $135 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $134 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $132 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $120 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $104 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $94.63 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $93.28 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $84.28 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $66.50 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $59.49 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $47.43 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/vice-lover/info`, 11 Nov, 14:22 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=vice-lover)

[★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [Kusenツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Kusen%E3%83%84) $300 $203 0.68x 2026-11-11 14:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $300 | 65.03% | 54 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $300 | 65.22% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $300 | 66.11% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $300 | 65.78% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $300 | 65.44% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $300 | 66.02% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $300 | 65.14% | 54 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $300 | 65.00% | 54 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $300 | 65.70% | 54 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $300 | 65.86% | 54 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed sunny 0.3% covert 65.3% extraordinary 10.0% gold 3.0% epic 0.4% #ffd700 3.0% covert knife 5.2% Covert 5.2% classified 5.2% Legendary 2.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 65.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $65.03 on average: an expected loss of $34.97 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt