---
title: "WILDFIRE case on DROP.SKIN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "WILDFIRE ($5.37) on DROP.SKIN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.72% from 45 items with odds, observed 76.87% over 42 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/wildfire
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) / [WILDFIRE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/wildfire)

# [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) · WILDFIRE

A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/wildfire?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/wildfire?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/wildfire) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/wildfire?window=all)

Price · $5.37

Advertised RTP · 87.72% · EV $4.71 from 45 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 76.87% · 42 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 22 openings · below min

7 days · 39 openings · below min

30 days · 42 openings · below min

since tracking started · 42 openings · below min

19.5% 98.5% 177.5%

**Small sample.** 42 openings and 8.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/wildfire?window=24h) | 22 | 99.70% ±77.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/wildfire?window=7d) | 39 | 79.67% ±58.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/wildfire) | 42 | 76.87% ±56.7 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/wildfire?window=all) | 42 | 76.87% ±56.7 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 42 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 1,314 | $259 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-battlestar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 278 | $54.80 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 267 | $52.78 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 263 | $51.83 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 222 | $43.85 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $39.53 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-xiangliu-factory-new) | 1 in 173 | $34.07 | 4.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 424 | $18.61 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Graphite (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 405 | $17.28 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-mummys-rot-factory-new) | 1 in 348 | $13.43 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 347 | $13.38 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Syd Mead (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-syd-mead-minimal-wear) | 1 in 346 | $13.29 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 326 | $12.05 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 276 | $9.10 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 270 | $8.77 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sobeks-bite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 268 | $8.68 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 266 | $8.59 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 256 | $8.04 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 231 | $6.78 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-triumvirate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 226 | $6.51 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Black Nile (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-black-nile-battle-scarred) | 1 in 226 | $6.51 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Panther (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-panther-minimal-wear) | 1 in 220 | $6.26 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 208 | $5.70 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P90 \| Schematic (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-schematic-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $5.27 | 4.5% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $4.86 | 4.3% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.71× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $4.78 | 4.3% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-clear-polymer-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $4.57 | 4.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $4.18 | 3.9% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Entombed (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $4.17 | 3.9% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $3.94 | 3.7% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-lead-conduit-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $3.23 | 3.1% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Cracked Opal (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-cracked-opal-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $3.21 | 3.1% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.11× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-azure-zebra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $3.14 | 3.0% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $3.03 | 2.9% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.58× |
| [Souvenir G3SG1 \| Ancient Ritual (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-ancient-ritual-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $2.87 | 2.8% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× |
| [MP7 \| Impire (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $2.72 | 2.6% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.11× |
| [M249 \| Impact Drill (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-impact-drill-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $2.47 | 2.3% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| [SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $2.35 | 2.2% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.60× |
| [Souvenir MP7 \| Tall Grass (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-tall-grass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $2.04 | 1.9% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.65× |
| [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $1.94 | 1.8% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [MP9 \| Old Roots (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-old-roots-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1.77 | 1.6% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.57× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-jambiya-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.73 | 1.5% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Tread (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-tread-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $1.06 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Lumen (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-lumen-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $0.98 | 0.6% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.32× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $0.74 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `dropskin:cases-service/slug/wildfire/info`, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=dropskin&case=wildfire)

[AUG | Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.37 $4.86 0.90x 2026-11-11 08:05 UTC

[Souvenir CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-cz75-auto-nitro-field-tested) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $5.37 $4.78 0.89x 2026-11-11 08:05 UTC

[AUG | Stymphalian (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-field-tested) Hidden $5.37 $3.94 0.73x 2026-11-11 07:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-xiangliu-factory-new) Hidden $5.37 $34.07 6.34x 2026-11-11 07:23 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Lumen (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-lumen-well-worn) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $5.37 $0.98 0.18x 2026-11-11 07:23 UTC

[Souvenir G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-ancient-ritual-minimal-wear) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $5.37 $2.87 0.53x 2026-11-11 07:23 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Lumen (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-lumen-well-worn) Hidden $5.37 $0.98 0.18x 2026-11-11 07:22 UTC

[MP7 | Impire (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.37 $2.72 0.51x 2026-11-11 07:22 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Cracked Opal (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-cracked-opal-factory-new) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $5.37 $3.21 0.60x 2026-11-11 07:22 UTC

[MP7 | Impire (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-minimal-wear) [Anaksunamun](https://gambatracker.com/players/dropskin/Anaksunamun) $5.37 $2.72 0.51x 2026-11-11 07:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $5.37 | 87.72% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $5.37 | 87.69% | 45 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $5.37 | 86.47% | 45 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $5.37 | 89.66% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $5.37 | 87.45% | 45 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $5.37 | 88.29% | 45 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $5.37 | 86.39% | 45 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $5.37 | 88.01% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $5.37 | 86.74% | 45 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $5.37 | 87.20% | 45 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.4% gold 0.4% restricted 9.7% Legendary 9.2% milspec 12.3% #d32ee6 0.6% classified 5.4% mil spec 9.2% pink 1.2% violet 0.4% blue 0.4% Restricted 4.7% Mil Spec Grade 8.0% Mil Spec 4.6% #4b69ff 7.1% Rare 9.0% Industrial Grade 8.9% consumer 4.5% Uncommon 4.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.72 on average: an expected loss of $12.28 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt