--- title: "Birthday Cake case on FarmSkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Birthday Cake ($29.99) on FarmSkins, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 91.46% over 1,016 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/battle-birthday-cake rendered: 2026-11-12T06:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [FarmSkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/farmskins) / [Birthday Cake](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/battle-birthday-cake) # [FarmSkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/farmskins) · Birthday Cake A case on FarmSkins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is FarmSkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/battle-birthday-cake?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/battle-birthday-cake?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/battle-birthday-cake) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/battle-birthday-cake?window=all) Price · $29.99 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 91.46% · 1,016 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 124 openings · below min 7 days · 829 openings · below min 30 days · 91.46% ±8.60 1,016 openings since tracking started · 91.46% ±8.60 1,016 openings 66.5% 91.0% 115.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/battle-birthday-cake?window=24h) | 124 | 91.16% ±23.9 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/battle-birthday-cake?window=7d) | 829 | 89.72% ±9.40 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/battle-birthday-cake) | 1,016 | 91.46% ±8.60 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/battle-birthday-cake?window=all) | 1,016 | 91.46% ±8.60 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** FarmSkins publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are FarmSkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=farmskins&case=battle-birthday-cake) [M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) [Julindla](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/Julindla) $29.99 $12.59 0.42x 2026-11-12 05:59 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) [Harry](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/Harry) $29.99 $6.35 0.21x 2026-11-12 05:59 UTC [M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) [Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/Joker) $29.99 $18.86 0.63x 2026-11-12 04:51 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) [PlayerUnknown](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/PlayerUnknown) $29.99 $3.76 0.13x 2026-11-12 04:51 UTC [M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) [Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/Joker) $29.99 $5.57 0.19x 2026-11-12 04:50 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) [PlayerUnknown](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/PlayerUnknown) $29.99 $38.16 1.27x 2026-11-12 04:50 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-battle-scarred) [karl](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/karl) $29.99 $101 3.35x 2026-11-12 03:14 UTC [AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) [iilyx8](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/iilyx8) $29.99 $3.53 0.12x 2026-11-12 03:14 UTC [M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) [karl](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/karl) $29.99 $12.59 0.42x 2026-11-12 03:13 UTC [Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [iilyx8](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/iilyx8) $29.99 $32.37 1.08x 2026-11-12 03:13 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.46 on average: an expected loss of $8.54 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt