--- title: "Mirage case on FarmSkins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Mirage ($0.39) on FarmSkins, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 80.57% over 7,039 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/battle-mirage rendered: 2026-11-11T23:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [FarmSkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/farmskins) / [Mirage](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/battle-mirage) # [FarmSkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/farmskins) · Mirage A case on FarmSkins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is FarmSkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/battle-mirage?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/battle-mirage?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/battle-mirage) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/battle-mirage?window=all) Price · $0.39 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 80.57% · 7,039 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 341 openings · below min 7 days · 80.66% ±1.19 5,503 openings 30 days · 80.57% ±1.05 7,039 openings since tracking started · 80.57% ±1.05 7,039 openings 74.5% 79.8% 85.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/battle-mirage?window=24h) | 341 | 79.71% ±4.71 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/battle-mirage?window=7d) | 5,503 | 80.66% ±1.19 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/battle-mirage) | 7,039 | 80.57% ±1.05 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/battle-mirage?window=all) | 7,039 | 80.57% ±1.05 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** FarmSkins publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are FarmSkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=farmskins&case=battle-mirage) [Glock-18 | Block-18 (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-well-worn) [coi912342](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/coi912342) $0.39 $0.45 1.15x 2026-11-11 22:50 UTC [Glock-18 | Off World (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-field-tested) [P1mple](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/P1mple) $0.39 $0.29 0.74x 2026-11-11 22:50 UTC [MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-field-tested) [univers](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/univers) $0.39 $0.10 0.26x 2026-11-11 22:50 UTC [Glock-18 | Off World (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-minimal-wear) [Reynardilo](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/Reynardilo) $0.39 $0.40 1.03x 2026-11-11 22:50 UTC [Glock-18 | Off World (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-field-tested) [coi912342](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/coi912342) $0.39 $0.29 0.74x 2026-11-11 22:50 UTC [P90 | Grim (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-field-tested) [P1mple](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/P1mple) $0.39 $0.32 0.82x 2026-11-11 22:50 UTC [M4A1-S | Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-well-worn) [univers](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/univers) $0.39 $0.46 1.18x 2026-11-11 22:50 UTC [P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-lifted-spirits-minimal-wear) [Reynardilo](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/Reynardilo) $0.39 $0.15 0.38x 2026-11-11 22:50 UTC [Glock-18 | Block-18 (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-well-worn) [External](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/External) $0.39 $0.45 1.15x 2026-11-11 22:40 UTC [MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-field-tested) [P1mple](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/P1mple) $0.39 $0.10 0.26x 2026-11-11 22:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 80.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $80.57 on average: an expected loss of $19.43 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt