--- title: "Vanguard case on FarmSkins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Vanguard ($2.99) on FarmSkins, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 79.95% over 3,589 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/kevlar-vanguard rendered: 2026-11-12T08:20Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [FarmSkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/farmskins) / [Vanguard](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/kevlar-vanguard) # [FarmSkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/farmskins) · Vanguard A case on FarmSkins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is FarmSkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/kevlar-vanguard?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/kevlar-vanguard?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/kevlar-vanguard) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/kevlar-vanguard?window=all) Price · $2.99 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 79.95% · 3,589 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 212 openings · below min 7 days · 82.95% ±7.67 2,799 openings 30 days · 79.95% ±6.66 3,589 openings since tracking started · 79.95% ±6.66 3,589 openings 51.5% 74.5% 97.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/kevlar-vanguard?window=24h) | 212 | 74.36% ±22.3 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/kevlar-vanguard?window=7d) | 2,799 | 82.95% ±7.67 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/kevlar-vanguard) | 3,589 | 79.95% ±6.66 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/kevlar-vanguard?window=all) | 3,589 | 79.95% ±6.66 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** FarmSkins publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are FarmSkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=farmskins&case=kevlar-vanguard) [USP-S | Alpine Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-well-worn) [Jokke](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/Jokke) $2.99 $0.35 0.12x 2026-11-12 07:25 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-battle-scarred) [August](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/August) $2.99 $0.81 0.27x 2026-11-12 06:30 UTC [AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) [August](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/August) $2.99 $33.06 11.06x 2026-11-12 06:30 UTC [FAMAS | Neural Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) [August](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/August) $2.99 $1.62 0.54x 2026-11-12 06:30 UTC [Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-battle-scarred) [August](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/August) $2.99 $0.17 0.06x 2026-11-12 06:30 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-battle-scarred) [August](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/August) $2.99 $1.22 0.41x 2026-11-12 06:30 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) [August](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/August) $2.99 $1.42 0.47x 2026-11-12 06:30 UTC [P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) [August](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/August) $2.99 $0.89 0.30x 2026-11-12 06:30 UTC [USP-S | Alpine Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-battle-scarred) [August](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/August) $2.99 $0.31 0.10x 2026-11-12 06:30 UTC [USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) [August](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/August) $2.99 $4.96 1.66x 2026-11-12 06:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 80.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $79.95 on average: an expected loss of $20.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt