--- title: "Small Problem case on FarmSkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Small Problem ($79.99) on FarmSkins, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 97.20% over 417 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/primal-forces-small-problem rendered: 2026-11-11T23:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [FarmSkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/farmskins) / [Small Problem](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/primal-forces-small-problem) # [FarmSkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/farmskins) · Small Problem A case on FarmSkins, first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is FarmSkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/primal-forces-small-problem?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/primal-forces-small-problem?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/primal-forces-small-problem) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/primal-forces-small-problem?window=all) Price · $79.99 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 97.20% · 417 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 44 openings · below min 7 days · 417 openings · below min 30 days · 417 openings · below min since tracking started · 417 openings · below min 78.0% 130.3% 182.5% **Small sample.** 417 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/primal-forces-small-problem?window=24h) | 44 | 130.45% ±51.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/primal-forces-small-problem?window=7d) | 417 | 97.20% ±10.9 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/primal-forces-small-problem) | 417 | 97.20% ±10.9 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/primal-forces-small-problem?window=all) | 417 | 97.20% ±10.9 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** FarmSkins publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are FarmSkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [sherbet](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/sherbet) $79.99 $673 8.41x 2026-11-11 17:53 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) [Samppa](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/Samppa) $79.99 $632 7.90x 2026-11-06 16:46 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) [Mr. Älä Huoli Siit](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/Mr.%20%C3%84l%C3%A4%20Huoli%20Siit) $79.99 $571 7.14x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=farmskins&case=primal-forces-small-problem) [★ Bayonet | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-field-tested) [lifeLESS](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/lifeLESS) $79.99 $163 2.04x 2026-11-11 21:37 UTC [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) [lifeLESS](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/lifeLESS) $79.99 $21.42 0.27x 2026-11-11 21:37 UTC [AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) [lifeLESS](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/lifeLESS) $79.99 $60.55 0.76x 2026-11-11 21:37 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) [lifeLESS](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/lifeLESS) $79.99 $34.55 0.43x 2026-11-11 21:37 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) [lifeLESS](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/lifeLESS) $79.99 $17.53 0.22x 2026-11-11 21:37 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) [lifeLESS](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/lifeLESS) $79.99 $177 2.21x 2026-11-11 21:37 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [lifeLESS](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/lifeLESS) $79.99 $130 1.63x 2026-11-11 21:37 UTC [AK-47 | Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) [lifeLESS](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/lifeLESS) $79.99 $65.91 0.82x 2026-11-11 21:37 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [lifeLESS](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/lifeLESS) $79.99 $169 2.11x 2026-11-11 21:37 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) [lifeLESS](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/lifeLESS) $79.99 $33.21 0.42x 2026-11-11 21:37 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $673 (8.41x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 97.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $97.20 on average: an expected loss of $2.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt