--- title: "Ava Fade case on FarmSkins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Ava Fade ($1.99) on FarmSkins, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 93.15% over 1,691 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/trend-ava-fade rendered: 2026-11-12T03:54Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [FarmSkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/farmskins) / [Ava Fade](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/trend-ava-fade) # [FarmSkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/farmskins) · Ava Fade A case on FarmSkins, first seen 11 Nov 2026. Every value is FarmSkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/trend-ava-fade?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/trend-ava-fade?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/trend-ava-fade) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/trend-ava-fade?window=all) Price · $1.99 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 93.15% · 1,691 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.15% ±13.50 1,691 openings 7 days · 93.15% ±13.50 1,691 openings 30 days · 93.15% ±13.50 1,691 openings since tracking started · 93.15% ±13.50 1,691 openings 79.0% 93.3% 107.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/trend-ava-fade?window=24h) | 1,691 | 93.15% ±13.5 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/trend-ava-fade?window=7d) | 1,691 | 93.15% ±13.5 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/trend-ava-fade) | 1,691 | 93.15% ±13.5 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/farmskins/trend-ava-fade?window=all) | 1,691 | 93.15% ±13.5 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** FarmSkins publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are FarmSkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) [jse](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/jse) $1.99 $159 80.04x 2026-11-11 20:00 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=farmskins&case=trend-ava-fade) [P90 | Neoqueen (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-field-tested) [\_\_\_\_\_\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/______) $1.99 $0.36 0.18x 2026-11-12 03:51 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) [\_\_\_\_\_\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/______) $1.99 $0.63 0.32x 2026-11-12 03:51 UTC [M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) [Luís](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/Lu%C3%ADs) $1.99 $1.13 0.57x 2026-11-12 03:48 UTC [AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) [Luís](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/Lu%C3%ADs) $1.99 $2.57 1.29x 2026-11-12 03:47 UTC [M4A1-S | VariCamo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-minimal-wear) [Luís](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/Lu%C3%ADs) $1.99 $0.42 0.21x 2026-11-12 03:47 UTC [Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-factory-new) [Luís](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/Lu%C3%ADs) $1.99 $1.41 0.71x 2026-11-12 03:47 UTC [USP-S | Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) [Luís](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/Lu%C3%ADs) $1.99 $0.45 0.23x 2026-11-12 03:47 UTC [M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) [f1z](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/f1z) $1.99 $0.47 0.24x 2026-11-12 03:42 UTC [MP9 | Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) [f1z](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/f1z) $1.99 $6.46 3.25x 2026-11-12 03:42 UTC [M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) [vAuthentics](https://gambatracker.com/players/farmskins/vAuthentics) $1.99 $1.13 0.57x 2026-11-12 03:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $159 (80.04x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.15 on average: an expected loss of $6.85 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt