---
title: "Fire Shock case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Fire Shock ($10.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.97% from 40 items with odds, observed 88.11% over 4,326 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/101
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Fire Shock](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/101)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Fire Shock

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/101?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/101?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/101) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/101?window=all)

Price · $10.50

Advertised RTP · 88.97% · EV $9.34 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.11% · 4,326 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.69% ±18.09 594 openings

7 days · 87.64% ±7.20 3,748 openings

30 days · 88.11% ±6.70 4,326 openings

since tracking started · 88.11% ±6.70 4,326 openings

74.0% 92.8% 111.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/101?window=24h) | 594 | 92.69% ±18.1 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/101?window=7d) | 3,748 | 87.64% ±7.20 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/101) | 4,326 | 88.11% ±6.70 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/101?window=all) | 4,326 | 88.11% ±6.70 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,344 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $2,783 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $863 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $511 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $381 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $350 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 3,226 | $275 | 0.9% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.49× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,174 | $185 | 0.9% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 2,083 | $178 | 0.9% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,786 | $152 | 0.9% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.82× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,724 | $146 | 0.9% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 1,639 | $139 | 0.9% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 1,613 | $138 | 0.9% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-well-worn) | 1 in 433 | $127 | 3.1% | 5 | 10.0 | 0.50× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 342 | $99.87 | 3.1% | 18 | 12.7 | 1.42× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-well-worn) | 1 in 277 | $80.94 | 3.1% | 14 | 15.7 | 0.89× |
| [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 276 | $80.70 | 3.1% | 24 | 15.7 | 1.53× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 184 | $53.71 | 3.1% | 22 | 23.6 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $47.99 | 6.1% | 63 | 51.3 | 1.23× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 72 | $40.74 | 6.1% | 63 | 60.4 | 1.04× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $23.08 | 6.1% | 114 | 106.6 | 1.07× |
| [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $20.58 | 7.1% | 159 | 140.7 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $17.59 | 7.1% | 158 | 164.6 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $16.46 | 7.1% | 177 | 175.9 | 1.01× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $13.55 | 7.1% | 186 | 213.7 | 0.87× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $13.55 | 7.1% | 193 | 213.7 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $10.91 | 7.1% | 256 | 265.5 | 0.96× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 68 | $9.39 | 1.5% | 69 | 63.6 | 1.08× |
| [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) | 1 in 68 | $9.31 | 1.5% | 62 | 64.2 | 0.97× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $7.17 | 1.5% | 85 | 83.3 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $2.63 | 1.5% | 232 | 227.1 | 1.02× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $2.48 | 1.5% | 222 | 240.8 | 0.92× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $2.44 | 1.5% | 266 | 244.8 | 1.09× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.61 | 1.5% | 359 | 371.0 | 0.97× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $1.47 | 1.5% | 376 | 406.3 | 0.93× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $1.42 | 0.3% | 86 | 95.4 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $1.38 | 0.3% | 119 | 98.1 | 1.21× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.78 | 0.3% | 173 | 173.6 | 1.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.69 | 0.3% | 212 | 196.2 | 1.08× |
| [SG 553 \| Heavy Metal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-heavy-metal-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $0.56 | 0.3% | 248 | 241.7 | 1.03× |
| [SG 553 \| Heavy Metal (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-heavy-metal-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.39 | 0.3% | 371 | 349.5 | 1.06× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/101`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[FAMAS | Spitfire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-factory-new) [sysek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/sysek) $10.50 $511 48.70x 2026-11-09 14:16 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=101)

[MAG-7 | Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.50 $2.44 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.50 $13.55 1.29x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[MAC-10 | Heat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-factory-new) [Janickyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Janickyy) $10.50 $13.55 1.29x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) Hidden $10.50 $53.71 5.12x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-factory-new) [landzwis skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/landzwis%20skins.army) $10.50 $1.47 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.50 $13.55 1.29x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[SG 553 | Heavy Metal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-heavy-metal-battle-scarred) [SzUgiS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SzUgiS) $10.50 $0.56 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[SG 553 | Heavy Metal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-heavy-metal-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.50 $0.56 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.50 $10.91 1.04x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-factory-new) Hidden $10.50 $1.47 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $10.50 | 88.97% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.4% restricted 25.7% classified 12.9% Covert 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.2% #8847ff 10.2% Mil Spec Grade 1.5% Mythical 11.2% mil spec 13.9% violet 2.2% #4b69ff 19.9% best hit $511 (48.70x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.97 on average: an expected loss of $11.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt