---
title: "MarioSPZoo case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "MarioSPZoo ($7.70) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.87% from 30 items with odds, observed 90.56% over 5,897 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1011868
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [MarioSPZoo](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1011868)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · MarioSPZoo

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1011868?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1011868?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1011868) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1011868?window=all)

Price · $7.70

Advertised RTP · 88.87% · EV $6.84 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.56% · 5,897 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 77.36% ±24.20 516 openings

7 days · 90.59% ±7.96 4,767 openings

30 days · 90.56% ±7.16 5,897 openings

since tracking started · 90.56% ±7.16 5,897 openings

52.5% 77.3% 102.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1011868?window=24h) | 516 | 77.36% ±24.2 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1011868?window=7d) | 4,767 | 90.59% ±7.96 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1011868) | 5,897 | 90.56% ±7.16 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1011868?window=all) | 5,897 | 90.56% ±7.16 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,941 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14,286 | $1,388 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $523 | 1.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 2,778 | $281 | 1.5% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.87× |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-field-tested) | 1 in 2,439 | $248 | 1.5% | 6 | 2.4 | 2.46× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fall-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 2,222 | $223 | 1.5% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.12× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,695 | $172 | 1.5% | 7 | 3.5 | 2.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-well-worn) | 1 in 1,408 | $142 | 1.5% | 1 | 4.2 | 0.24× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 1,235 | $124 | 1.5% | 6 | 4.8 | 1.25× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 1,111 | $112 | 1.5% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) | 1 in 1,042 | $105 | 1.5% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.23× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 893 | $89.33 | 1.5% | 7 | 6.7 | 1.05× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 275 | $74.59 | 4.0% | 17 | 21.6 | 0.79× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 259 | $70.10 | 4.0% | 21 | 22.9 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 246 | $66.47 | 4.0% | 25 | 24.2 | 1.03× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 231 | $62.68 | 4.0% | 26 | 25.7 | 1.01× |
| [P250 \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 217 | $58.84 | 4.0% | 36 | 27.3 | 1.32× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-fully-tuned-well-worn) | 1 in 179 | $48.42 | 4.0% | 25 | 33.2 | 0.75× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 129 | $34.90 | 4.0% | 49 | 46.1 | 1.06× |
| [USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $30.15 | 4.0% | 60 | 53.4 | 1.12× |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-field-tested) | 1 in 98 | $26.64 | 4.0% | 60 | 60.4 | 0.99× |
| [MP7 \| Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $26.10 | 4.0% | 59 | 61.7 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 94 | $25.36 | 4.0% | 66 | 63.4 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-mount-fuji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 79 | $21.44 | 4.0% | 53 | 75.0 | 0.71× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $15.46 | 5.6% | 154 | 147.3 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $14.74 | 5.6% | 169 | 154.5 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-skull-crusher-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $12.63 | 5.6% | 207 | 180.3 | 1.15× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Airlock (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-airlock-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $11.93 | 5.6% | 189 | 190.9 | 0.99× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $9.26 | 5.6% | 240 | 246.0 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $7.76 | 5.6% | 286 | 293.5 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 70.3% | $0.27 | 2.8% | 4,157 | 4174.6 | 1.00× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1011868`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) Hidden $7.70 $523 67.97x 2026-11-06 06:31 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1011868)

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $7.70 $0.27 0.04x 2026-11-11 20:43 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) Hidden $7.70 $7.76 1.01x 2026-11-11 20:43 UTC

[P90 | Shapewood (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.70 $9.26 1.20x 2026-11-11 20:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [s!imple](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/s!imple) $7.70 $0.27 0.04x 2026-11-11 20:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $7.70 $0.27 0.04x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Lewy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Lewy) $7.70 $0.27 0.04x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $7.70 $0.27 0.04x 2026-11-11 20:29 UTC

[MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.70 $26.10 3.39x 2026-11-11 20:29 UTC

[P90 | Shapewood (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-battle-scarred) [Tonny Rat skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Tonny%20Rat%20skins.army) $7.70 $9.26 1.20x 2026-11-11 20:29 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Gerdzio skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Gerdzio%20skins.army) $7.70 $0.27 0.04x 2026-11-11 20:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $7.70 | 88.87% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 2.5% classified 10.9% restricted 3.8% #d32ee6 0.1% Legendary 0.1% gold 0.4% mil spec 0.5% rare 0.6% #8847ff 0.9% Restricted 1.0% blue 1.0% Classified 3.0% pink 4.9% Uncommon 70.3% best hit $523 (67.97x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.87 on average: an expected loss of $11.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt