---
title: "Vanderek case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Vanderek ($10.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.86% from 23 items with odds, observed 82.38% over 1,308 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1011902
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:23Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Vanderek](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1011902)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Vanderek

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1011902?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1011902?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1011902) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1011902?window=all)

Price · $10.00

Advertised RTP · 88.86% · EV $8.89 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.38% · 1,308 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 72.82% ±34.47 201 openings

7 days · 85.41% ±14.47 1,141 openings

30 days · 82.38% ±13.51 1,308 openings

since tracking started · 82.38% ±13.51 1,308 openings

37.5% 72.8% 108.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1011902?window=24h) | 201 | 72.82% ±34.5 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1011902?window=7d) | 1,141 | 85.41% ±14.5 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1011902) | 1,308 | 82.38% ±13.5 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1011902?window=all) | 1,308 | 82.38% ±13.5 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,325 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 1,136 | $453 | 4.5% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.57× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 493 | $197 | 4.5% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) | 1 in 478 | $192 | 4.5% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 452 | $181 | 4.5% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 285 | $114 | 4.5% | 2 | 4.7 | 0.43× |
| [AK-47 \| First Class (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-well-worn) | 1 in 164 | $93.60 | 6.4% | 2 | 8.1 | 0.25× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $59.93 | 6.4% | 12 | 12.6 | 0.95× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $52.21 | 6.4% | 14 | 14.5 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 76 | $43.32 | 6.4% | 26 | 17.5 | 1.49× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-well-worn) | 1 in 73 | $41.92 | 6.4% | 14 | 18.1 | 0.78× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $36.99 | 6.4% | 22 | 20.5 | 1.07× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $29.39 | 6.4% | 29 | 25.8 | 1.13× |
| [Negev \| Phoenix Stencil (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-phoenix-stencil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $18.85 | 4.9% | 29 | 30.7 | 0.94× |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $16.56 | 4.9% | 34 | 34.9 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $16.28 | 4.9% | 36 | 35.5 | 1.01× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $16.04 | 4.9% | 32 | 36.1 | 0.89× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $14.82 | 4.9% | 36 | 39.0 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $13.58 | 4.9% | 40 | 42.6 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $3.23 | 0.6% | 23 | 21.7 | 1.06× |
| [AUG \| Tom Cat (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-minimal-wear) | 15.1% | $0.35 | 0.6% | 194 | 200.6 | 0.97× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-field-tested) | 16.1% | $0.33 | 0.6% | 222 | 212.8 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 18.9% | $0.28 | 0.6% | 252 | 250.8 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-well-worn) | 21.8% | $0.25 | 0.6% | 300 | 288.9 | 1.04× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1011902`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1011902)

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) Hidden $10.00 $3.23 0.32x 2026-11-11 19:22 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-well-worn) Hidden $10.00 $0.25 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:22 UTC

[AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-minimal-wear) [Eck0](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Eck0) $10.00 $0.35 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:22 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) Hidden $10.00 $3.23 0.32x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-field-tested) Hidden $10.00 $0.33 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) [Wujek CSGOSKINS #CASEHUG](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Wujek%20CSGOSKINS%20%23CASEHUG) $10.00 $3.23 0.32x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) Hidden $10.00 $29.39 2.94x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-well-worn) [y4s](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/y4s) $10.00 $0.25 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-well-worn) Hidden $10.00 $0.25 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-field-tested) [y4s](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/y4s) $10.00 $0.33 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $10.00 | 88.86% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #ffd700 0.1% covert 0.6% classified 7.7% restricted 19.6% Covert 1.0% gold 2.6% extraordinary 1.4% #4b69ff 24.1% violet 2.6% pink 2.9% Restricted 3.2% milspec 15.1% mil spec 18.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.86 on average: an expected loss of $11.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt