---
title: "Frostfire case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Frostfire ($7.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.93% from 41 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021598
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:42Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Frostfire](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021598)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Frostfire

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021598?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021598?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021598) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021598?window=all)

Price · $7.00

Advertised RTP · 88.93% · EV $6.23 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 4.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021598?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021598?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021598) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021598?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 2,041 | $340 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-well-worn) | 1 in 1,250 | $209 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 719 | $120 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 552 | $91.94 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 483 | $80.51 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 442 | $73.80 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 248 | $64.30 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 232 | $60.37 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 187 | $48.54 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 175 | $45.52 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 151 | $39.16 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 134 | $34.69 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $28.74 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 73 | $19.11 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $18.36 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $15.24 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $13.21 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $11.11 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $11.03 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $9.53 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $9.10 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $7.99 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $7.96 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $7.22 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 197 | $6.90 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $6.50 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $5.84 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Random Access (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-factory-new) | 1 in 124 | $4.34 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) | 1 in 114 | $3.98 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-battle-scarred) | 1 in 103 | $3.62 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $2.63 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $1.92 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $1.54 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $1.20 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $0.39 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $0.32 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.28 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Off World (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-off-world-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.23 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.12 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Triqua (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-battle-scarred) | 13.2% | $0.08 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-battle-scarred) | 17.7% | $0.06 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1021598`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1021598)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $7.00 | 88.93% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 9.9% extraordinary 0.1% gold 0.1% red 0.2% restricted 17.3% blue 1.4% classified 5.5% Ancient 5.4% #eb4b4b 3.4% mil spec 21.0% violet 1.5% Mythical 0.6% Rare 2.7% #4b69ff 30.9%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.93 on average: an expected loss of $11.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt