---
title: "Lorebringer case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Lorebringer ($9.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.92% from 42 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021743
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Lorebringer](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021743)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Lorebringer

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021743?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021743?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021743) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021743?window=all)

Price · $9.00

Advertised RTP · 88.92% · EV $8.00 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 8.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021743?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021743?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021743) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021743?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 5,882 | $1,240 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 2,564 | $547 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,887 | $403 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,235 | $263 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 510 | $109 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-well-worn) | 1 in 495 | $106 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 474 | $102 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-field-tested) | 1 in 248 | $85.51 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 222 | $76.44 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 181 | $62.12 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 131 | $45.03 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $42.33 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 86 | $29.72 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $22.27 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-well-worn) | 1 in 64 | $22.06 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $19.34 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $17.60 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $16.23 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $14.06 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $13.26 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $12.11 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $11.07 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $10.11 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $9.52 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-battle-scarred) | 1 in 375 | $8.62 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 280 | $6.45 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 222 | $5.10 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 127 | $2.91 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-well-worn) | 1 in 106 | $2.44 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-factory-new) | 1 in 79 | $1.81 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $1.45 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $0.92 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $0.71 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $0.59 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-well-worn) | 1 in 52 | $0.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Popdog (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-popdog-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $0.35 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $0.27 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $0.19 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.16 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Ricochet (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.11 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-well-worn) | 10.6% | $0.08 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Negev \| Drop Me (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-drop-me-battle-scarred) | 14.3% | $0.06 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1021743`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1021743)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $9.00 | 88.92% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 9.2% restricted 7.3% extraordinary 0.2% classified 16.1% pink 5.4% Legendary 4.4% blue 6.3% mil spec 7.0% violet 3.9% #8847ff 1.9% Rare 2.4% #4b69ff 25.1% #87c7ff 10.6%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.92 on average: an expected loss of $11.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt