---
title: "Glacial Rider case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Glacial Rider ($120.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.87% from 45 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021789
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Glacial Rider](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021789)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Glacial Rider

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021789?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021789?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021789) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021789?window=all)

Price · $120.00

Advertised RTP · 88.87% · EV $106.64 from 45 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021789?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021789?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021789) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021789?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-well-worn) | 1 in 3,704 | $7,499 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 2,222 | $4,451 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 1,282 | $2,566 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 926 | $1,854 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 800 | $1,599 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 699 | $1,395 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 629 | $1,260 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 251 | $1,115 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 190 | $843 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 166 | $737 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 109 | $485 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 88 | $393 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $309 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $288 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $272 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $262 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-night-stripe-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $235 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $233 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $224 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $202 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $181 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $163 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $142 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $133 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $125 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-field-tested) | 1 in 592 | $119 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 403 | $80.51 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 315 | $63.03 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 203 | $40.54 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) | 1 in 132 | $26.40 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 102 | $20.30 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 70 | $14.08 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $10.35 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $6.01 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $5.09 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $4.17 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $1.00 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Digital Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-digital-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $0.98 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.96 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.92 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $0.77 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Imprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-imprint-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.70 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $0.65 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.58 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.50 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1021789`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1021789)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $120 | 88.87% | 45 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 3.5% covert 31.5% restricted 13.6% gold 0.1% epic 0.4% sunny 0.5% covert knife 7.7% classified 6.2% #ffd700 1.6% extraordinary 5.8% Mythical 7.5% Rare 16.5% #4b69ff 4.9%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.87 on average: an expected loss of $11.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt