---
title: "The Icebreaker case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "The Icebreaker ($8.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.89% from 40 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021895
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [The Icebreaker](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021895)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · The Icebreaker

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021895?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021895?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021895) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021895?window=all)

Price · $8.00

Advertised RTP · 88.89% · EV $7.11 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 8.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021895?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021895?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021895) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1021895?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $762 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $740 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 3,125 | $472 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,381 | $360 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,333 | $200 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 694 | $104 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 633 | $95.01 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 575 | $86.00 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 219 | $77.69 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 190 | $67.33 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-well-worn) | 1 in 152 | $53.95 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $44.40 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $30.08 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $21.08 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $18.74 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $17.10 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $15.81 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $15.24 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $12.15 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $10.35 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $9.10 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $8.62 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $8.27 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $8.24 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 159 | $7.34 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $6.00 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $5.10 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $4.00 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $3.01 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $1.92 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $1.62 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $1.01 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $0.56 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $0.46 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $0.35 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.25 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Grim (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.18 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.15 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 10.2% | $0.12 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 11.6% | $0.11 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1021895`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1021895)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $8.00 | 88.89% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed rare 0.0% classified 15.2% covert 5.4% red 9.5% #d32ee6 4.9% Classified 2.1% Ancient 3.9% Legendary 1.5% restricted 2.9% Mythical 4.6% violet 4.9% #4b69ff 8.4% mil spec 25.2% industrial 11.6%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.89 on average: an expected loss of $11.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt