--- title: "10% Knives case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% Knives ($11.70) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.88% from 26 items with odds, observed 85.93% over 6,493 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/107 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [10% Knives](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/107) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · 10% Knives A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/107?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/107?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/107) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/107?window=all) Price · $11.70 Advertised RTP · 83.88% · EV $9.81 from 26 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.93% · 6,493 openings, odds method Variance · 9.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 32 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 92.68% ±18.78 1,058 openings 7 days · 86.06% ±7.96 5,951 openings 30 days · 85.93% ±7.64 6,493 openings since tracking started · 85.93% ±7.64 6,493 openings 73.0% 92.5% 112.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/107?window=24h) | 1,058 | 92.68% ±18.8 | +0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/107?window=7d) | 5,951 | 86.06% ±7.96 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/107) | 6,493 | 85.93% ±7.64 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/107?window=all) | 6,493 | 85.93% ±7.64 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,493 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 3,030 | $651 | 2.2% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.93× | | [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $589 | 1.8% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.03× | | [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,692 | $548 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,091 | $535 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,316 | $440 | 3.4% | 9 | 4.9 | 1.82× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,042 | $214 | 2.1% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.96× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,124 | $203 | 1.8% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.87× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 211 | $168 | 8.1% | 25 | 30.7 | 0.81× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 575 | $165 | 2.9% | 12 | 11.3 | 1.06× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 278 | $156 | 5.7% | 32 | 23.4 | 1.37× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 877 | $142 | 1.7% | 5 | 7.4 | 0.68× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 220 | $131 | 6.1% | 32 | 29.5 | 1.08× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 990 | $118 | 1.2% | 12 | 6.6 | 1.83× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 204 | $116 | 5.8% | 27 | 31.8 | 0.85× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 1,053 | $114 | 1.1% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.97× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 193 | $114 | 6.0% | 37 | 33.6 | 1.10× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 181 | $108 | 6.1% | 38 | 35.8 | 1.06× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $104 | 5.3% | 22 | 32.5 | 0.68× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 138 | $87.87 | 6.5% | 49 | 47.0 | 1.04× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 142 | $75.31 | 5.4% | 46 | 45.8 | 1.00× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 171 | $69.19 | 4.1% | 40 | 38.0 | 1.05× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 127 | $61.01 | 4.9% | 54 | 51.1 | 1.06× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 168 | $56.99 | 3.4% | 45 | 38.6 | 1.17× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $51.73 | 8.7% | 94 | 106.9 | 0.88× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 128 | $50.05 | 4.0% | 40 | 50.6 | 0.79× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 90.0% | $0.04 | 0.4% | 5,851 | 5843.7 | 1.00× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/107`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-field-tested) Hidden $11.70 $651 55.64x 2026-11-11 00:18 UTC [★ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-field-tested) Hidden $11.70 $651 55.64x 2026-11-09 22:54 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) [⚡ ᴮ⁰ᵐᵇᵉˡ ⚡](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%9A%A1%20%E1%B4%AE%E2%81%B0%E1%B5%90%E1%B5%87%E1%B5%89%CB%A1%20%E2%9A%A1) $12.50 $599 47.94x 2026-11-04 02:09 UTC [★ Bayonet | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.70 $589 50.33x 2026-11-05 20:46 UTC [★ Bayonet | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.50 $549 43.96x 2026-11-04 22:29 UTC [★ Karambit | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.70 $548 46.80x 2026-11-09 22:38 UTC [★ Karambit | Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-scorched-battle-scarred) [♿Ali5Cali♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%99%BFAli5Cali%E2%99%BF) $12.50 $508 40.67x 2026-11-04 22:27 UTC [★ Karambit | Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-scorched-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.50 $508 40.67x 2026-11-03 21:46 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=107) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $11.70 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $11.70 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $11.70 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Moszyl](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Moszyl) $11.70 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $11.70 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $11.70 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [\_\_September \_\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/__September%20__) $11.70 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $11.70 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Moszyl](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Moszyl) $11.70 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [adamnicho](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/adamnicho) $11.70 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 11:42 UTC | $11.70 | 83.88% | 26 | | 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $12.50 | 84.05% | 26 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 7.9% #ffd700 1.9% Immortal 0.1% Covert 0.1% consumer 90.0% best hit $651 (55.64x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.88 on average: an expected loss of $16.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt