---
title: "Vivid Bloom case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Vivid Bloom ($60.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.90% from 42 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1071158
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:43Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Vivid Bloom](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1071158)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Vivid Bloom

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1071158?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1071158?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1071158) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1071158?window=all)

Price · $60.00

Advertised RTP · 88.90% · EV $53.34 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 5.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1071158?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1071158?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1071158) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1071158?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,778 | $3,489 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-well-worn) | 1 in 2,564 | $3,176 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 1,724 | $2,141 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,282 | $1,599 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 820 | $1,021 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 606 | $760 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 524 | $653 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 503 | $627 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 293 | $587 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-well-worn) | 1 in 181 | $361 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 142 | $284 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $185 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $162 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 77 | $155 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $134 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-arboreal-well-worn) | 1 in 64 | $128 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) | 1 in 62 | $123 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $119 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $111 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $102 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $88.35 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $75.85 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $65.53 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $63.05 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $61.07 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 254 | $56.35 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 225 | $50.03 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 168 | $37.38 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $24.75 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $12.43 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $10.10 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $6.71 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $5.81 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $5.09 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $0.60 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 55 | $0.45 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.33 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $0.23 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Off World (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $0.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.12 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.09 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.07 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1071158`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1071158)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $60.00 | 88.90% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 22.2% extraordinary 7.5% restricted 4.0% rare 0.2% sunny 0.2% covert knife 2.0% classified 19.9% pink 5.5% #4b69ff 16.2% mil spec 10.5% Rare 12.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.90 on average: an expected loss of $11.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt