---
title: "COLDZERA case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "COLDZERA ($10.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.98% from 42 items with odds, observed 86.83% over 1,776 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1071981
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:12Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [COLDZERA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1071981)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · COLDZERA

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1071981?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1071981?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1071981) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1071981?window=all)

Price · $10.00

Advertised RTP · 88.98% · EV $8.90 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.83% · 1,776 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.79% ±21.44 386 openings

7 days · 90.65% ±10.66 1,561 openings

30 days · 86.83% ±10.00 1,776 openings

since tracking started · 86.83% ±10.00 1,776 openings

62.5% 84.8% 107.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1071981?window=24h) | 386 | 84.79% ±21.4 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1071981?window=7d) | 1,561 | 90.65% ±10.7 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1071981) | 1,776 | 86.83% ±10.00 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1071981?window=all) | 1,776 | 86.83% ±10.00 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,776 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 1,389 | $221 | 1.8% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $198 | 1.8% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 1,053 | $167 | 1.8% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 917 | $146 | 1.8% | 5 | 1.9 | 2.58× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-well-worn) | 1 in 909 | $144 | 1.8% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 870 | $138 | 1.8% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 855 | $136 | 1.8% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.44× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 826 | $131 | 1.8% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 746 | $119 | 1.8% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.68× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 725 | $115 | 1.8% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.41× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 719 | $114 | 1.8% | 5 | 2.5 | 2.03× |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 383 | $97.78 | 2.9% | 1 | 4.6 | 0.22× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 382 | $97.52 | 2.9% | 7 | 4.7 | 1.50× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 321 | $81.85 | 2.9% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.72× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 319 | $81.77 | 2.9% | 4 | 5.6 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 283 | $72.34 | 2.9% | 4 | 6.3 | 0.64× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 251 | $64.20 | 2.9% | 11 | 7.1 | 1.56× |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-factory-new) | 1 in 237 | $60.51 | 2.9% | 11 | 7.5 | 1.47× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 205 | $52.45 | 2.9% | 8 | 8.6 | 0.92× |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-field-tested) | 1 in 198 | $50.52 | 2.9% | 9 | 9.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 187 | $47.66 | 2.9% | 9 | 9.5 | 0.95× |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) | 1 in 184 | $47.09 | 2.9% | 10 | 9.6 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 148 | $37.88 | 2.9% | 13 | 12.0 | 1.08× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 139 | $35.54 | 2.9% | 19 | 12.8 | 1.49× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) | 1 in 134 | $34.18 | 2.9% | 12 | 13.3 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 131 | $33.55 | 2.9% | 18 | 13.5 | 1.33× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $31.45 | 2.9% | 15 | 14.4 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $29.48 | 2.9% | 16 | 15.4 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $23.02 | 2.9% | 13 | 19.7 | 0.66× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $18.93 | 3.2% | 25 | 26.9 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $18.88 | 3.2% | 25 | 27.0 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 64 | $18.44 | 3.2% | 17 | 27.7 | 0.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $18.26 | 3.2% | 21 | 27.9 | 0.75× |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $12.79 | 3.2% | 34 | 39.9 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $11.64 | 3.2% | 36 | 43.8 | 0.82× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $10.47 | 3.2% | 46 | 48.7 | 0.94× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $8.31 | 1.0% | 20 | 19.2 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.16 | 1.0% | 170 | 137.8 | 1.23× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-factory-new) | 10.7% | $0.84 | 1.0% | 177 | 190.3 | 0.93× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-factory-new) | 11.5% | $0.78 | 1.0% | 222 | 204.9 | 1.08× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-battle-scarred) | 21.4% | $0.42 | 1.0% | 371 | 380.6 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-battle-scarred) | 22.5% | $0.41 | 1.0% | 405 | 400.3 | 1.01× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1071981`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1071981)

[Glock-18 | Warhawk (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.00 $0.41 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[Galil AR | Connexion (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.00 $0.42 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[Glock-18 | Warhawk (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-battle-scarred) [adamnicho](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/adamnicho) $10.00 $0.41 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[Glock-18 | Warhawk (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-battle-scarred) [MIOD MALINA](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MIOD%20MALINA) $10.00 $0.41 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[Glock-18 | Warhawk (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-battle-scarred) [abc ʕʘ̅͜ʘ̅ʔ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/abc%20%CA%95%CA%98%CC%85%CD%9C%CA%98%CC%85%CA%94) $10.00 $0.41 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-factory-new) [wojda8skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/wojda8skins.army) $10.00 $0.84 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Glock-18 | Warhawk (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.00 $0.41 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) [DejvidS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/DejvidS) $10.00 $81.77 8.18x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-factory-new) Hidden $10.00 $0.84 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $10.00 $0.78 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $10.00 | 88.98% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.4% #ffd700 0.1% covert knife 0.4% extraordinary 0.1% classified 12.5% Ancient 1.1% pink 3.0% red 0.7% restricted 20.2% #d32ce6 1.1% blue 1.6% Rare 2.2% mil spec 33.3% #8847ff 21.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.98 on average: an expected loss of $11.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt