--- title: "10% Luxury case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% Luxury ($81.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.39% from 15 items with odds, observed 80.32% over 868 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/108 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [10% Luxury](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/108) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · 10% Luxury A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/108?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/108?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/108) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/108?window=all) Price · $81.00 Advertised RTP · 84.39% · EV $68.36 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.32% · 868 openings, odds method Variance · 10.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 44 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 101 openings · below min 7 days · 88.39% ±27.42 556 openings 30 days · 80.32% ±21.92 868 openings since tracking started · 80.32% ±21.92 868 openings 32.5% 97.5% 162.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/108?window=24h) | 101 | 97.58% ±64.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/108?window=7d) | 556 | 88.39% ±27.4 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/108) | 868 | 80.32% ±21.9 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/108?window=all) | 868 | 80.32% ±21.9 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 868 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Knight (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 833 | $2,808 | 4.9% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $1,855 | 27.1% | 10 | 8.7 | 1.15× | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,330 | 9.7% | 7 | 4.3 | 1.61× | | [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-battle-scarred) | 1 in 148 | $966 | 9.6% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× | | [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $936 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 146 | $764 | 7.6% | 7 | 5.9 | 1.18× | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $596 | 6.7% | 4 | 6.7 | 0.60× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-chalice-factory-new) | 1 in 102 | $581 | 8.3% | 9 | 8.5 | 1.06× | | [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 103 | $515 | 7.3% | 7 | 8.5 | 0.83× | | [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 73 | $419 | 8.4% | 8 | 12.0 | 0.67× | | [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 198 | $339 | 2.5% | 2 | 4.4 | 0.46× | | [AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 141 | $330 | 3.4% | 3 | 6.2 | 0.49× | | [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 106 | $178 | 2.5% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.85× | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-battle-scarred) | 1 in 135 | $135 | 1.5% | 6 | 6.4 | 0.94× | | [SCAR-20 \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) | 90.0% | $0.04 | 0.1% | 794 | 781.2 | 1.02× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/108`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-battle-scarred) [twitch.tv/kosior\_777](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/twitch.tv%2Fkosior_777) $81.00 $1,855 22.91x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-battle-scarred) Hidden $81.00 $1,855 22.91x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-battle-scarred) [Mateuszyście](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Mateuszy%C5%9Bcie) $81.00 $1,855 22.91x 2026-11-09 20:47 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-battle-scarred) Hidden $81.00 $1,855 22.91x 2026-11-08 18:45 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-battle-scarred) Hidden $81.00 $1,855 22.91x 2026-11-08 17:55 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-battle-scarred) Hidden $81.00 $1,855 22.91x 2026-11-07 20:20 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-battle-scarred) Hidden $81.00 $1,855 22.91x 2026-11-07 16:07 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-battle-scarred) [Nexe](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Nexe) $85.70 $1,855 21.65x 2026-11-03 20:48 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-battle-scarred) Hidden $85.70 $1,855 21.65x 2026-11-03 20:48 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-battle-scarred) Hidden $85.70 $1,855 21.65x 2026-11-03 20:48 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=108) [SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $81.00 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:56 UTC [SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $81.00 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:56 UTC [SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) [kim.](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kim.) $81.00 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:56 UTC [SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) [⋆Brazzers⋆ |Johnny Sins](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%8B%86Brazzers%E2%8B%86%20%7CJohnny%20Sins) $81.00 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:53 UTC [SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) [kim.](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kim.) $81.00 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:53 UTC [SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) [DnaMoczanowa](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/DnaMoczanowa) $81.00 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) [kim.](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kim.) $81.00 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $81.00 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:26 UTC [SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $81.00 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:26 UTC [SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) [mrouZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mrouZ) $81.00 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:26 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $81.00 | 84.39% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $85.70 | 84.41% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 3.0% #d32ee6 3.5% covert 0.8% restricted 2.7% consumer 90.0% best hit $1,855 (22.91x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.39 on average: an expected loss of $15.61 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt