---
title: "Once upon a time case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Once upon a time ($0.40) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.03% from 56 items with odds, observed 88.54% over 149K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/111
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:42Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Once upon a time](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/111)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Once upon a time

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/111?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/111?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/111) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/111?window=all)

Price · $0.40

Advertised RTP · 89.03% · EV $0.36 from 56 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.54% · 149K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.18% ±2.44 18.4K openings

7 days · 88.28% ±0.96 123K openings

30 days · 88.54% ±0.88 149K openings

since tracking started · 88.54% ±0.88 149K openings

85.0% 88.3% 91.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/111?window=24h) | 18.4K | 88.18% ±2.44 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/111?window=7d) | 123K | 88.28% ±0.96 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/111) | 149K | 88.54% ±0.88 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/111?window=all) | 149K | 88.54% ±0.88 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 56 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 149K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Ironwork (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-factory-new) | 1 in 9,091 | $45.55 | 1.4% | 11 | 16.4 | 0.67× |
| [John 'Van Healen' Kask \| SWAT agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/john-van-healen-kask-swat) | 1 in 1,961 | $9.88 | 1.4% | 60 | 75.9 | 0.79× |
| [Rezan The Ready \| Sabre agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/rezan-the-ready-sabre) | 1 in 1,250 | $6.27 | 1.4% | 110 | 119.0 | 0.92× |
| [AUG \| Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $5.56 | 1.4% | 132 | 133.9 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,316 | $3.35 | 0.7% | 95 | 113.1 | 0.84× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,163 | $2.96 | 0.7% | 108 | 128.0 | 0.84× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-well-worn) | 1 in 1,111 | $2.83 | 0.7% | 121 | 133.9 | 0.90× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,064 | $2.71 | 0.7% | 148 | 139.9 | 1.06× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,010 | $2.58 | 0.7% | 141 | 147.3 | 0.96× |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-field-tested) | 1 in 980 | $2.49 | 0.7% | 147 | 151.8 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Slashed (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-slashed-field-tested) | 1 in 840 | $2.13 | 0.7% | 172 | 177.1 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 826 | $2.11 | 0.7% | 167 | 180.1 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-factory-new) | 1 in 820 | $2.09 | 0.7% | 183 | 181.5 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-factory-new) | 1 in 806 | $2.06 | 0.7% | 169 | 184.5 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Handgun (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-handgun-field-tested) | 1 in 787 | $2.00 | 0.7% | 199 | 189.0 | 1.05× |
| [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) | 1 in 758 | $1.93 | 0.7% | 179 | 196.4 | 0.91× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $1.70 | 0.7% | 236 | 223.2 | 1.06× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Yorick (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-yorick-factory-new) | 1 in 662 | $1.69 | 0.7% | 205 | 224.7 | 0.91× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 645 | $1.64 | 0.7% | 254 | 230.6 | 1.10× |
| [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 621 | $1.58 | 0.7% | 207 | 239.6 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 585 | $1.49 | 0.7% | 237 | 254.5 | 0.93× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-battle-scarred) | 1 in 510 | $1.30 | 0.7% | 301 | 291.7 | 1.03× |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-well-worn) | 1 in 508 | $1.29 | 0.7% | 259 | 293.1 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-phantom-field-tested) | 1 in 503 | $1.28 | 0.7% | 290 | 296.1 | 0.98× |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) | 1 in 503 | $1.28 | 0.7% | 275 | 296.1 | 0.93× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-field-tested) | 1 in 490 | $1.25 | 0.7% | 277 | 303.6 | 0.91× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 483 | $1.23 | 0.7% | 268 | 308.0 | 0.87× |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 478 | $1.22 | 0.7% | 295 | 311.0 | 0.95× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-field-tested) | 1 in 472 | $1.20 | 0.7% | 296 | 315.5 | 0.94× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-well-worn) | 1 in 459 | $1.17 | 0.7% | 337 | 324.4 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-corinthian-factory-new) | 1 in 424 | $1.08 | 0.7% | 310 | 351.2 | 0.88× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 408 | $1.04 | 0.7% | 369 | 364.6 | 1.01× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 385 | $0.98 | 0.7% | 375 | 386.9 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 382 | $0.97 | 0.7% | 351 | 389.9 | 0.90× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) | 1 in 373 | $0.95 | 0.7% | 412 | 398.8 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 326 | $0.83 | 0.7% | 416 | 456.8 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heaven-guard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 323 | $0.82 | 0.7% | 362 | 461.3 | 0.78× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heaven-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $0.66 | 5.3% | 4,446 | 4227.5 | 1.05× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.63 | 5.3% | 4,369 | 4428.3 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $0.59 | 5.3% | 4,379 | 4728.9 | 0.93× |
| [MP5-SD \| Condition Zero (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-condition-zero-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $0.55 | 5.3% | 5,183 | 5072.7 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $0.49 | 5.3% | 5,494 | 5694.7 | 0.96× |
| [UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-labyrinth-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.49 | 5.3% | 4,297 | 5694.7 | 0.75× |
| [MP7 \| Akoben (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.46 | 5.3% | 5,960 | 6065.2 | 0.98× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.46 | 5.3% | 5,917 | 6065.2 | 0.98× |
| [P90 \| Grim (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $0.36 | 2.4% | 4,412 | 3544.5 | 1.24× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $0.33 | 2.4% | 4,095 | 3864.4 | 1.06× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Origami (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $0.32 | 2.4% | 3,876 | 3984.9 | 0.97× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $0.30 | 2.4% | 4,771 | 4251.3 | 1.12× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.24 | 2.4% | 5,243 | 5313.7 | 0.99× |
| [P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $0.24 | 2.4% | 6,248 | 5313.7 | 1.18× |
| [SG 553 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.23 | 2.4% | 5,437 | 5545.9 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $0.19 | 2.9% | 8,591 | 8222.8 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ol-rusty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.19 | 2.9% | 7,551 | 8222.8 | 0.92× |
| [Nova \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.15 | 2.9% | 10,074 | 10416.1 | 0.97× |
| [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 26.3% | $0.04 | 3.0% | 39,985 | 39155.8 | 1.02× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/111`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Glock-18 | Ironwork (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-factory-new) Hidden $0.40 $50.07 125.2x 2026-11-03 20:09 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ironwork (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-factory-new) Hidden $0.40 $50.07 125.2x 2026-11-03 16:47 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ironwork (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-factory-new) [gekonsikibid](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/gekonsikibid) $0.40 $50.07 125.2x 2026-11-02 23:08 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ironwork (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-factory-new) Hidden $0.40 $45.55 113.9x 2026-11-10 15:32 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ironwork (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-factory-new) [kasti\_022](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kasti_022) $0.40 $45.55 113.9x 2026-11-08 21:03 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ironwork (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-factory-new) Hidden $0.40 $45.55 113.9x 2026-11-08 20:47 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ironwork (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-factory-new) [Yotsuba\_Nakano\_skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Yotsuba_Nakano_skins.army) $0.40 $45.55 113.9x 2026-11-08 09:47 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ironwork (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-factory-new) Hidden $0.40 $45.55 113.9x 2026-11-07 10:40 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ironwork (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-factory-new) Hidden $0.40 $45.55 113.9x 2026-11-06 21:08 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ironwork (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-factory-new) Hidden $0.40 $45.55 113.9x 2026-11-06 11:43 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=111)

[P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $0.40 $0.04 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) [ow skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ow%20skins.army) $0.40 $0.46 1.15x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ol-rusty-minimal-wear) [Franull](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Franull) $0.40 $0.19 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $0.40 $0.04 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-labyrinth-factory-new) Hidden $0.40 $0.49 1.22x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.40 $0.49 1.22x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ol-rusty-minimal-wear) [🖕 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9F%96%95%20skins.army) $0.40 $0.19 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) [𝕸𝖆𝖈𝖎𝖊𝖐\_𝖙](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9D%95%B8%F0%9D%96%86%F0%9D%96%88%F0%9D%96%8E%F0%9D%96%8A%F0%9D%96%90_%F0%9D%96%99) $0.40 $0.04 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heaven-guard-field-tested) Hidden $0.40 $0.66 1.65x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) [CudoVny](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/CudoVny) $0.40 $0.04 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $0.40 | 89.03% | 56 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $0.40 | 89.04% | 56 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Rare 3.0% violet 0.2% superior 0.1% #8847ff 1.5% restricted 5.2% Restricted 0.1% mil spec 4.8% Mythical 0.1% #4b69ff 38.7% Mil Spec 3.8% industrial 10.6% #87c7ff 5.5% consumer 26.3% best hit $50.07 (125.2x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.03 on average: an expected loss of $10.97 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt