---
title: "El Cheapo case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "El Cheapo ($1.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.90% from 50 items with odds, observed 90.25% over 58K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/113
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:41Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [El Cheapo](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/113)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · El Cheapo

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/113?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/113?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/113) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/113?window=all)

Price · $1.50

Advertised RTP · 88.90% · EV $1.33 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.25% · 58K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.81% ±3.39 8,309 openings

7 days · 90.67% ±1.40 49.1K openings

30 days · 90.25% ±1.30 58K openings

since tracking started · 90.25% ±1.30 58K openings

83.0% 87.8% 92.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 88.88% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (88.95% – 91.54%, 58,014 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/113?window=24h) | 8,309 | 86.81% ±3.39 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/113?window=7d) | 49.1K | 90.67% ±1.40 | +2.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/113) | 58K | 90.25% ±1.30 | +2.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/113?window=all) | 58K | 90.25% ±1.30 | +2.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $122 | 0.6% | 7 | 4.1 | 1.72× |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $87.76 | 0.6% | 6 | 5.2 | 1.15× |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $41.42 | 0.6% | 14 | 11.6 | 1.20× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-factory-new) | 1 in 4,348 | $35.46 | 0.6% | 14 | 13.4 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 3,571 | $29.48 | 0.6% | 15 | 16.3 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,030 | $24.56 | 0.6% | 21 | 19.2 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-conspiracy-field-tested) | 1 in 2,564 | $21.18 | 0.6% | 16 | 22.7 | 0.71× |
| [P250 \| Red Rock (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-well-worn) | 1 in 2,381 | $19.66 | 0.6% | 21 | 24.4 | 0.86× |
| [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,326 | $18.95 | 0.6% | 25 | 25.0 | 1.00× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-factory-new) | 1 in 2,128 | $17.23 | 0.6% | 23 | 27.3 | 0.84× |
| [P250 \| Red Rock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,961 | $16.10 | 0.6% | 31 | 29.6 | 1.05× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 606 | $13.88 | 1.7% | 75 | 95.9 | 0.78× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-field-tested) | 1 in 595 | $13.64 | 1.7% | 83 | 97.6 | 0.85× |
| [The Elite Mr. Muhlik \| Elite Crew agent · master](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-elite-mr-muhlik-elite-crew) | 1 in 417 | $9.54 | 1.7% | 153 | 139.5 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 304 | $6.95 | 1.7% | 210 | 191.2 | 1.10× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 292 | $6.67 | 1.7% | 182 | 199.3 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 273 | $6.24 | 1.7% | 214 | 212.7 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-well-worn) | 1 in 263 | $6.01 | 1.7% | 231 | 220.8 | 1.05× |
| [AUG \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 263 | $6.01 | 1.7% | 195 | 220.8 | 0.88× |
| [AUG \| Torque (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-well-worn) | 1 in 247 | $5.64 | 1.7% | 268 | 235.4 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 1 in 242 | $5.52 | 1.7% | 247 | 240.6 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-battle-scarred) | 1 in 240 | $5.50 | 1.7% | 235 | 241.7 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 1 in 168 | $3.83 | 1.7% | 362 | 346.9 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-well-worn) | 1 in 137 | $3.14 | 1.7% | 458 | 423.1 | 1.08× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-factory-new) | 1 in 134 | $3.05 | 1.7% | 423 | 435.3 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $2.77 | 5.2% | 1,354 | 1442.3 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $2.65 | 5.2% | 1,447 | 1507.4 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $2.63 | 5.2% | 1,405 | 1519.0 | 0.92× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $2.51 | 5.2% | 1,476 | 1591.7 | 0.93× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $2.48 | 5.2% | 1,549 | 1610.9 | 0.96× |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $2.06 | 5.2% | 1,693 | 1939.2 | 0.87× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $1.54 | 5.2% | 2,356 | 2594.1 | 0.91× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.53 | 5.2% | 2,339 | 2611.0 | 0.90× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $1.42 | 2.6% | 1,521 | 1432.5 | 1.06× |
| [P250 \| Contaminant (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contaminant-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $1.38 | 2.6% | 1,613 | 1473.7 | 1.09× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $1.36 | 2.6% | 1,621 | 1495.8 | 1.08× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $1.35 | 2.6% | 1,687 | 1506.8 | 1.12× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $1.34 | 2.6% | 1,625 | 1517.9 | 1.07× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $1.21 | 2.6% | 1,778 | 1681.2 | 1.06× |
| [P2000 \| Turf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-turf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $0.76 | 2.6% | 3,548 | 2676.1 | 1.33× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $0.56 | 2.6% | 3,591 | 3632.0 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $0.45 | 0.8% | 1,349 | 1334.8 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $0.35 | 0.8% | 1,655 | 1715.5 | 0.96× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $0.32 | 0.8% | 1,918 | 1876.4 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Off World (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.32 | 0.8% | 1,773 | 1876.4 | 0.94× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $0.30 | 0.8% | 2,008 | 2001.4 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.23 | 0.8% | 2,538 | 2611.0 | 0.97× |
| [P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $0.19 | 0.8% | 3,190 | 3160.1 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Freight (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $0.14 | 0.8% | 3,790 | 4289.2 | 0.88× |
| [P90 \| Freight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.11 | 0.8% | 5,759 | 5516.0 | 1.04× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/113`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) [trualpfa skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/trualpfa%20skins.army) $1.50 $185 123.1x 2026-11-05 00:28 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) [Siuuuuskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Siuuuuskins.army) $1.50 $122 81.60x 2026-11-09 13:32 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) [siur](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/siur) $1.50 $122 81.60x 2026-11-09 12:43 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) Hidden $1.50 $122 81.60x 2026-11-08 10:01 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) Hidden $1.50 $122 81.60x 2026-11-07 19:51 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) [astronauta adam skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/astronauta%20adam%20skins.army) $1.50 $122 81.60x 2026-11-06 00:02 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) [MARIO](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MARIO) $1.50 $122 81.60x 2026-11-05 19:52 UTC

[M4A4 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.50 $95.79 63.86x 2026-11-05 08:19 UTC

[M4A4 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.50 $95.79 63.86x 2026-11-04 15:25 UTC

[M4A4 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-minimal-wear) [Spocony Kacperek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Spocony%20Kacperek) $1.50 $87.76 58.51x 2026-11-10 15:49 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=113)

[AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) Hidden $1.50 $1.35 0.90x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[P250 | Contaminant (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contaminant-minimal-wear) [Najderson](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Najderson) $1.50 $1.38 0.92x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[USP-S | Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) [KszykuYT](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KszykuYT) $1.50 $1.53 1.02x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[USP-S | Torque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.50 $1.54 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[P250 | Valence (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-battle-scarred) [Najderson](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Najderson) $1.50 $0.32 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) [KszykuYT](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KszykuYT) $1.50 $0.35 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-battle-scarred) [LucA :D skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/LucA%20%3AD%20skins.army) $1.50 $2.77 1.85x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[USP-S | Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) [DikiPaki skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/DikiPaki%20skins.army) $1.50 $1.53 1.02x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Osiris (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-field-tested) Hidden $1.50 $2.48 1.65x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) [Malina](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Malina) $1.50 $1.34 0.89x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $1.50 | 88.90% | 50 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $1.50 | 88.84% | 50 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.9% #eb4b4b 0.0% pink 0.2% restricted 7.9% mil spec 4.5% #d32ee6 0.2% master 0.2% violet 3.0% Mythical 11.5% #8847ff 9.1% #4b69ff 52.8% Rare 2.5% milspec 2.6% industrial 4.5% best hit $185 (123.1x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.90 on average: an expected loss of $11.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt