---
title: "Wanna try? case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Wanna try? ($4.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.97% from 61 items with odds, observed 92.42% over 8,777 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/114
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Wanna try?](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/114)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Wanna try?

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/114?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/114?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/114) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/114?window=all)

Price · $4.50

Advertised RTP · 88.97% · EV $4.00 from 61 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.42% · 8,777 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.34% ±10.99 1,108 openings

7 days · 91.56% ±4.33 7,144 openings

30 days · 92.42% ±3.90 8,777 openings

since tracking started · 92.42% ±3.90 8,777 openings

77.5% 89.3% 101.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/114?window=24h) | 1,108 | 89.34% ±11.0 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/114?window=7d) | 7,144 | 91.56% ±4.33 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/114) | 8,777 | 92.42% ±3.90 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/114?window=all) | 8,777 | 92.42% ±3.90 | +1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 61 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,805 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,545 | $252 | 1.4% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.55× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-factory-new) | 1 in 2,273 | $122 | 1.3% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,041 | $110 | 1.3% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.39× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 1,266 | $69.07 | 1.4% | 9 | 7.0 | 1.29× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-undertow-factory-new) | 1 in 1,176 | $63.76 | 1.4% | 6 | 7.5 | 0.80× |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) | 1 in 862 | $46.70 | 1.4% | 12 | 10.2 | 1.17× |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 855 | $46.27 | 1.4% | 15 | 10.3 | 1.46× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-mehndi-field-tested) | 1 in 526 | $35.89 | 1.7% | 19 | 16.7 | 1.14× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $34.03 | 1.7% | 22 | 17.6 | 1.25× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 485 | $33.06 | 1.7% | 20 | 18.1 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 427 | $29.08 | 1.7% | 15 | 20.6 | 0.73× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 420 | $28.68 | 1.7% | 22 | 21.0 | 1.05× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) | 1 in 402 | $27.41 | 1.7% | 29 | 21.9 | 1.32× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 361 | $24.64 | 1.7% | 33 | 24.4 | 1.35× |
| [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 355 | $24.13 | 1.7% | 20 | 24.8 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Antique (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-antique-factory-new) | 1 in 348 | $23.74 | 1.7% | 21 | 25.3 | 0.83× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 313 | $21.36 | 1.7% | 32 | 28.1 | 1.14× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 306 | $20.85 | 1.7% | 27 | 28.8 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 294 | $20.05 | 1.7% | 25 | 29.9 | 0.84× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 276 | $18.82 | 1.7% | 38 | 31.9 | 1.19× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 270 | $18.44 | 1.7% | 33 | 32.6 | 1.01× |
| [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 266 | $18.13 | 1.7% | 28 | 33.1 | 0.85× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 257 | $17.52 | 1.7% | 42 | 34.3 | 1.23× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 251 | $17.09 | 1.7% | 36 | 35.1 | 1.02× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-well-worn) | 1 in 242 | $16.45 | 1.7% | 44 | 36.5 | 1.21× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-nemesis-field-tested) | 1 in 239 | $16.25 | 1.7% | 29 | 36.9 | 0.79× |
| [Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $15.14 | 1.7% | 36 | 39.6 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 191 | $13.01 | 1.7% | 50 | 46.1 | 1.08× |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 189 | $12.89 | 1.7% | 41 | 46.6 | 0.88× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-minimal-wear) | 1 in 185 | $12.58 | 1.7% | 47 | 47.7 | 0.98× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 175 | $11.96 | 1.7% | 55 | 50.2 | 1.10× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 165 | $11.23 | 1.7% | 48 | 53.4 | 0.90× |
| [Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 158 | $10.75 | 1.7% | 52 | 55.8 | 0.93× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-well-worn) | 1 in 155 | $10.58 | 1.7% | 52 | 56.7 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 152 | $10.34 | 1.7% | 61 | 58.0 | 1.05× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 145 | $9.88 | 1.7% | 67 | 60.8 | 1.10× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 74 | $8.20 | 2.8% | 120 | 119.5 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $8.07 | 2.8% | 132 | 121.4 | 1.09× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $8.04 | 2.8% | 143 | 121.9 | 1.17× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $7.93 | 2.8% | 138 | 123.5 | 1.12× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Antique (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-antique-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $7.78 | 2.8% | 113 | 125.9 | 0.90× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $7.17 | 2.8% | 142 | 136.7 | 1.04× |
| [M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $6.86 | 2.8% | 150 | 142.8 | 1.05× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $6.16 | 2.8% | 150 | 159.0 | 0.94× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $5.89 | 2.8% | 160 | 166.3 | 0.96× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $5.70 | 2.8% | 160 | 171.9 | 0.93× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $5.63 | 2.8% | 169 | 174.0 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $5.43 | 2.8% | 183 | 180.4 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Field-Tested) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $1.52 | 0.8% | 174 | 183.5 | 0.95× |
| [UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $1.38 | 0.8% | 184 | 202.1 | 0.91× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $0.73 | 0.8% | 368 | 382.0 | 0.96× |
| [Negev \| Terrain (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.58 | 0.8% | 507 | 480.8 | 1.05× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.56 | 0.8% | 481 | 497.9 | 0.97× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.55 | 0.8% | 501 | 506.9 | 0.99× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.50 | 0.4% | 291 | 306.9 | 0.95× |
| [Negev \| Terrain (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.47 | 0.4% | 325 | 326.5 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.35 | 0.4% | 451 | 438.4 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.28 | 0.4% | 563 | 548.0 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $0.25 | 0.4% | 589 | 613.8 | 0.96× |
| [XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.22 | 0.4% | 692 | 697.5 | 0.99× |
| [XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.19 | 0.4% | 820 | 799.8 | 1.03× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/114`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-minimal-wear) [gamusiek69 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/gamusiek69%20skins.army) $4.50 $252 55.95x 2026-11-09 12:10 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.50 $252 55.95x 2026-11-06 19:24 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.50 $252 55.95x 2026-11-04 17:21 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=114)

[XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-well-worn) [Macix](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Macix) $4.50 $0.22 0.05x 2026-11-11 14:08 UTC

[FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-battle-scarred) [Kalasznikov](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kalasznikov) $4.50 $5.89 1.31x 2026-11-11 14:08 UTC

[MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) [Macix](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Macix) $4.50 $0.73 0.16x 2026-11-11 14:08 UTC

[P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-minimal-wear) [Kalasznikov](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kalasznikov) $4.50 $0.55 0.12x 2026-11-11 14:08 UTC

[AK-47 | Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) [DziMen](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/DziMen) $4.50 $28.68 6.37x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC

[P90 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-field-tested) [CYGAN (ツ)ว](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/CYGAN%20%28%E3%83%84%29%E0%B8%A7) $4.50 $0.56 0.12x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC

[P90 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-field-tested) [DziMen](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/DziMen) $4.50 $0.56 0.12x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC

[Negev | Terrain (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-field-tested) [CYGAN (ツ)ว](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/CYGAN%20%28%E3%83%84%29%E0%B8%A7) $4.50 $0.58 0.13x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC

[XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-field-tested) [\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/___________________________) $4.50 $0.19 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC

[Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) [kabziu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kabziu) $4.50 $0.25 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $4.50 | 88.97% | 61 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 2.1% classified 13.7% #eb4b4b 0.0% Legendary 0.1% restricted 7.9% #d32ee6 1.1% #8847ff 4.9% pink 0.9% Classified 0.4% mil spec 37.3% Mythical 0.5% blue 1.4% #4b69ff 19.0% Rare 5.8% milspec 5.0% best hit $252 (55.95x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.97 on average: an expected loss of $11.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt