---
title: "Blazing Heist case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Blazing Heist ($5.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.87% from 37 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166377
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Blazing Heist](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166377)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Blazing Heist

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166377?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166377?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166377) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166377?window=all)

Price · $5.00

Advertised RTP · 88.87% · EV $4.44 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 6.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166377?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166377?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166377) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166377?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $495 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $462 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $355 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $207 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $104 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 870 | $54.41 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 840 | $52.42 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 820 | $51.34 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 221 | $49.80 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 179 | $40.31 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 134 | $30.14 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $20.70 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $20.70 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $12.17 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $11.46 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $11.14 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $9.98 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $8.90 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $7.10 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $7.01 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $5.46 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $5.11 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $5.04 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 94 | $4.69 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $4.01 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $3.54 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $2.99 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $2.03 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.24 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $1.05 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $1.00 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-well-worn) | 1 in 53 | $0.51 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $0.34 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.23 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.13 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-battle-scarred) | 12.1% | $0.08 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Destroyer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-destroyer-battle-scarred) | 13.9% | $0.07 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1166377`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1166377)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $5.00 | 88.87% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 9.7% extraordinary 0.0% gold 0.1% classified 5.1% pink 3.1% Ancient 1.8% Mythical 8.8% red 7.5% #d32ee6 3.4% #8847ff 3.1% mil spec 13.6% restricted 10.7% #4b69ff 16.7% Rare 16.3%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.87 on average: an expected loss of $11.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt