---
title: "Hellfire Burst case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Hellfire Burst ($15.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.92% from 36 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166579
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:33Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Hellfire Burst](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166579)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Hellfire Burst

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166579?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166579?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166579) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166579?window=all)

Price · $15.00

Advertised RTP · 88.92% · EV $13.34 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166579?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166579?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166579) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166579?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $959 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,370 | $458 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 893 | $298 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 599 | $200 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 518 | $173 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 493 | $164 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 182 | $134 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 165 | $122 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 136 | $100 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $98.24 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $52.31 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $33.60 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $31.21 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $31.09 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $28.08 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $24.94 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $24.68 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $18.73 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $18.16 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $15.75 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $15.35 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $15.22 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-well-worn) | 1 in 268 | $11.40 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 213 | $9.04 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-field-tested) | 1 in 142 | $6.02 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $4.02 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $3.00 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $1.67 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $1.56 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $1.53 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $0.71 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.52 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.31 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Off World (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-off-world-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.23 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-well-worn) | 13.9% | $0.11 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Desert Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-well-worn) | 19.3% | $0.08 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1166579`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1166579)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $15.00 | 88.92% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 0.0% covert 13.0% classified 13.7% extraordinary 0.2% red 4.8% restricted 9.1% #4b69ff 35.6% Ancient 2.2% Covert 0.4% #d32ee6 1.1% pink 2.5% Mythical 2.7% violet 7.9% mil spec 6.7%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.92 on average: an expected loss of $11.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt