--- title: "Cartel Warlord case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cartel Warlord ($30.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.87% from 24 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166686 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Cartel Warlord](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166686) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Cartel Warlord A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166686?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166686?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166686) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166686?window=all) Price · $30.00 Advertised RTP · 88.87% · EV $26.66 from 24 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 63.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166686?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166686?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166686) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166686?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 2,941 | $1,700 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,424 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 1,408 | $802 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,099 | $625 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 552 | $315 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 543 | $311 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 543 | $310 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Field-Tested) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-field-tested) | 1 in 203 | $269 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 166 | $221 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 135 | $178 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $152 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) | 1 in 93 | $123 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $69.66 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $63.15 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $62.85 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $59.38 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $56.61 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Electric Hive (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $49.67 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $48.14 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $40.91 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $40.31 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $39.46 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $38.97 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-flame-test-field-tested) | 63.0% | $0.10 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1166686`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1166686) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $30.00 | 88.87% | 24 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 12.6% extraordinary 0.9% covert knife 0.1% classified 10.9% Extraordinary 0.5% #ffd700 0.7% Mythical 1.9% restricted 6.3% Classified 3.0% #4b69ff 63.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.87 on average: an expected loss of $11.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt