---
title: "Tropical Rush case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Tropical Rush ($120.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.82% from 37 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166995
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Tropical Rush](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166995)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Tropical Rush

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166995?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166995?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166995) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166995?window=all)

Price · $120.00

Advertised RTP · 88.82% · EV $106.58 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 61.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166995?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166995?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166995) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1166995?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,724 | $4,451 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,266 | $3,262 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,566 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 840 | $2,163 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 532 | $1,368 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 481 | $1,235 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 476 | $1,222 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 190 | $1,099 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $754 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 90 | $520 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-night-stripe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $384 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $288 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $250 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $248 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $218 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $212 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $202 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $174 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $173 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $151 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $135 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $125 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 262 | $98.41 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 173 | $65.01 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 122 | $45.91 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $32.52 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $19.13 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $8.79 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $8.13 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $8.01 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $0.91 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $0.61 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $0.55 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Shred (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.33 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.17 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Triqua (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-well-worn) | 13.0% | $0.10 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-flame-test-field-tested) | 12.9% | $0.10 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1166995`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1166995)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $120 | 88.82% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 17.2% legendary 0.1% gold 0.2% sunny 0.2% covert knife 1.5% extraordinary 8.8% classified 18.1% restricted 9.6% pink 4.6% Mythical 2.3% mil spec 3.9% #4b69ff 33.4%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.82 on average: an expected loss of $11.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt