--- title: "Warm Embrace case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Warm Embrace ($6.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.83% from 27 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1245865 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Warm Embrace](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1245865) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Warm Embrace A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1245865?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1245865?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1245865) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1245865?window=all) Price · $6.00 Advertised RTP · 88.83% · EV $5.33 from 27 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 6.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 62.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1245865?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1245865?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1245865) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1245865?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $537 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,545 | $459 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,632 | $260 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 2,041 | $204 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 1,429 | $142 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,075 | $108 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 633 | $63.14 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 613 | $61.37 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 196 | $58.57 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $45.96 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 124 | $37.10 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-minimal-wear) | 1 in 106 | $31.47 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 79 | $23.63 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $16.67 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $12.68 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $12.20 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $11.94 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Curse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-curse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $11.85 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $9.89 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Nova \| Bloomstick (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $8.49 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $8.35 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $7.47 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-umbral-rabbit-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $6.98 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $6.27 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $6.17 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $6.08 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-well-worn) | 62.0% | $0.07 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1245865`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1245865) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $6.00 | 88.83% | 27 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.8% #d32ee6 2.2% extraordinary 0.1% classified 10.9% #d32ce6 2.4% restricted 10.7% violet 3.3% Mil Spec Grade 3.5% #87c7ff 62.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.83 on average: an expected loss of $11.17 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt