---
title: "I need a dollar case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "I need a dollar ($1.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.89% from 47 items with odds, observed 89.85% over 94K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/129
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [I need a dollar](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/129)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · I need a dollar

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/129?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/129?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/129) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/129?window=all)

Price · $1.00

Advertised RTP · 88.89% · EV $0.89 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.85% · 94K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.63% ±3.30 12.5K openings

7 days · 89.81% ±1.32 78.2K openings

30 days · 89.85% ±1.21 94K openings

since tracking started · 89.85% ±1.21 94K openings

85.5% 89.5% 93.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/129?window=24h) | 12.5K | 89.63% ±3.30 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/129?window=7d) | 78.2K | 89.81% ±1.32 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/129) | 94K | 89.85% ±1.21 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/129?window=all) | 94K | 89.85% ±1.21 | +1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 94.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $42.22 | 0.7% | 18 | 13.2 | 1.37× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 6,250 | $38.86 | 0.7% | 12 | 15.1 | 0.80× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,263 | $31.94 | 0.7% | 12 | 17.9 | 0.67× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 4,545 | $27.43 | 0.7% | 22 | 20.7 | 1.06× |
| [P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 4,167 | $25.45 | 0.7% | 20 | 22.6 | 0.89× |
| [FAMAS \| Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-contrast-spray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,846 | $23.28 | 0.7% | 21 | 24.5 | 0.86× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $20.00 | 0.7% | 29 | 28.2 | 1.03× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,226 | $19.36 | 0.7% | 33 | 29.2 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,778 | $16.87 | 0.7% | 33 | 33.9 | 0.97× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-field-tested) | 1 in 2,222 | $13.64 | 0.7% | 39 | 42.4 | 0.92× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) | 1 in 2,174 | $13.13 | 0.7% | 44 | 43.3 | 1.02× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-well-worn) | 1 in 2,128 | $12.91 | 0.7% | 34 | 44.2 | 0.77× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,961 | $11.83 | 0.7% | 52 | 48.0 | 1.08× |
| [FAMAS \| Contrast Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-contrast-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 1,852 | $11.24 | 0.7% | 113 | 50.8 | 2.22× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-battle-scarred) | 1 in 457 | $9.66 | 2.4% | 165 | 206.2 | 0.80× |
| [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) | 1 in 439 | $9.28 | 2.4% | 176 | 214.6 | 0.82× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 435 | $9.22 | 2.4% | 151 | 216.5 | 0.70× |
| [B Squadron Officer \| SAS agent · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/b-squadron-officer-sas) | 1 in 375 | $7.92 | 2.4% | 176 | 251.3 | 0.70× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 369 | $7.81 | 2.4% | 294 | 255.1 | 1.15× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 323 | $6.83 | 2.4% | 298 | 291.8 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) | 1 in 317 | $6.72 | 2.4% | 283 | 296.5 | 0.95× |
| [AUG \| Condemned (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-factory-new) | 1 in 262 | $5.54 | 2.4% | 344 | 359.6 | 0.96× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-well-worn) | 1 in 257 | $5.45 | 2.4% | 383 | 366.2 | 1.05× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 236 | $4.99 | 2.4% | 401 | 399.1 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) | 1 in 211 | $4.47 | 2.4% | 454 | 446.2 | 1.02× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-factory-new) | 1 in 186 | $3.94 | 2.4% | 523 | 505.5 | 1.03× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 166 | $3.51 | 2.4% | 562 | 567.6 | 0.99× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 124 | $2.63 | 2.4% | 859 | 757.8 | 1.13× |
| [G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-scavenger-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2.12 | 2.4% | 920 | 940.4 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 97 | $2.06 | 2.4% | 1,005 | 967.7 | 1.04× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $2.01 | 2.4% | 1,167 | 992.2 | 1.18× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $1.95 | 4.7% | 1,807 | 2036.2 | 0.89× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $1.61 | 4.7% | 2,331 | 2465.4 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $1.44 | 4.7% | 2,535 | 2756.3 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $1.32 | 4.7% | 3,050 | 3006.7 | 1.01× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $1.29 | 4.7% | 2,950 | 3077.3 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $1.12 | 4.7% | 3,363 | 3544.2 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $0.95 | 2.4% | 2,446 | 2114.3 | 1.16× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $0.79 | 2.4% | 2,466 | 2541.7 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $0.78 | 2.4% | 2,575 | 2574.6 | 1.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $0.76 | 2.4% | 2,636 | 2642.4 | 1.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-scavenger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $0.52 | 2.4% | 3,825 | 3862.4 | 0.99× |
| [AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.42 | 2.4% | 4,799 | 4781.2 | 1.00× |
| [AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $0.35 | 1.8% | 4,132 | 4236.1 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.19 | 1.8% | 7,984 | 7802.9 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.18 | 1.8% | 7,656 | 8236.9 | 0.93× |
| [AUG \| Condemned (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-field-tested) | 31.9% | $0.05 | 1.8% | 30,938 | 29988.9 | 1.03× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/129`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=129)

[AUG | Condemned (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.05 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[AUG | Condemned (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-field-tested) [karoliwanicki68](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/karoliwanicki68) $1.00 $0.05 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[AWP | Acheron (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-well-worn) Hidden $1.00 $1.32 1.32x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[AWP | Capillary (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.00 $1.12 1.12x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[AUG | Condemned (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-field-tested) [:)](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%3A%29) $1.00 $0.05 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[AUG | Amber Slipstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-battle-scarred) [ZeGaRR skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ZeGaRR%20skins.army) $1.00 $0.35 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.79 0.79x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[AUG | Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-battle-scarred) [Pabloo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Pabloo) $1.00 $1.29 1.29x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-field-tested) [zxr](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/zxr) $1.00 $3.51 3.51x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[AUG | Condemned (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-field-tested) [SutyPudziana skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SutyPudziana%20skins.army) $1.00 $0.05 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $1.00 | 88.89% | 47 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $1.00 | 88.94% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% mil spec 13.2% classified 0.1% #777777 0.1% #d32ee6 0.3% pink 0.1% restricted 12.8% #4b69ff 10.2% industrial 0.3% #87c7ff 40.5% Rare 7.5% #8847ff 2.9% milspec 3.2% Uncommon 8.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.89 on average: an expected loss of $11.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt