---
title: "PAGO case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "PAGO ($8.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.05% from 42 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1293131
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [PAGO](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1293131)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · PAGO

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1293131?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1293131?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1293131) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1293131?window=all)

Price · $8.00

Advertised RTP · 89.05% · EV $7.12 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 8.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 26 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1293131?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1293131?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1293131) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1293131?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 1,351 | $388 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,042 | $297 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 971 | $278 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 641 | $183 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 633 | $181 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) | 1 in 439 | $125 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 394 | $112 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 373 | $75.47 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested) | 1 in 373 | $75.45 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 373 | $75.24 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 294 | $59.43 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 293 | $59.31 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 291 | $58.72 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 228 | $46.06 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-well-worn) | 1 in 227 | $45.76 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 225 | $45.52 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-well-worn) | 1 in 173 | $35.02 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 163 | $32.93 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 161 | $32.53 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $19.24 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $18.41 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 91 | $18.34 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 134 | $15.97 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $15.83 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 132 | $15.74 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 131 | $15.69 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 128 | $15.31 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 126 | $15.02 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $13.29 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $12.94 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 108 | $12.91 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $10.55 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $10.34 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-battle-scarred) | 1 in 86 | $10.25 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $8.94 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $8.88 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 74 | $8.88 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-well-worn) | 1 in 10 | $0.46 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-battle-scarred) | 11.0% | $0.40 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-factory-new) | 14.7% | $0.30 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-well-worn) | 18.3% | $0.24 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) | 21.4% | $0.21 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1293131`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1293131)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $8.00 | 89.05% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 11.0% covert 5.5% covert knife 0.2% classified 13.1% restricted 14.9% #eb4b4b 0.3% red 2.5% pink 0.3% Legendary 0.3% #8847ff 0.4% #4b69ff 19.1% Ancient 1.3% violet 9.6% mil spec 21.4%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.05 on average: an expected loss of $10.95 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt