---
title: "Lucky punch case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Lucky punch ($2.30) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.12% from 53 items with odds, observed 89.64% over 31.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/130
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:56Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Lucky punch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/130)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Lucky punch

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/130?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/130?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/130) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/130?window=all)

Price · $2.30

Advertised RTP · 89.12% · EV $2.05 from 53 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.64% · 31.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.93% ±5.35 5,686 openings

7 days · 89.54% ±2.49 26.7K openings

30 days · 89.64% ±2.31 31.4K openings

since tracking started · 89.64% ±2.31 31.4K openings

85.0% 91.0% 97.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/130?window=24h) | 5,686 | 90.93% ±5.35 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/130?window=7d) | 26.7K | 89.54% ±2.49 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/130) | 31.4K | 89.64% ±2.31 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/130?window=all) | 31.4K | 89.64% ±2.31 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 6,667 | $190 | 1.4% | 8 | 4.7 | 1.70× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $145 | 1.4% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $117 | 1.4% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.89× |
| [P2000 \| Scorpion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-scorpion-factory-new) | 1 in 1,408 | $40.62 | 1.4% | 16 | 22.3 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,064 | $30.56 | 1.4% | 23 | 29.5 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 893 | $25.58 | 1.4% | 40 | 35.2 | 1.14× |
| [P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 885 | $25.45 | 1.4% | 56 | 35.5 | 1.58× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 1 in 613 | $20.12 | 1.6% | 51 | 51.2 | 1.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 610 | $20.01 | 1.6% | 45 | 51.5 | 0.87× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-factory-new) | 1 in 515 | $16.90 | 1.6% | 50 | 60.9 | 0.82× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 478 | $15.75 | 1.6% | 65 | 65.6 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 476 | $15.63 | 1.6% | 53 | 65.9 | 0.80× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 410 | $13.46 | 1.6% | 72 | 76.6 | 0.94× |
| [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 360 | $11.83 | 1.6% | 77 | 87.3 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-factory-new) | 1 in 340 | $11.19 | 1.6% | 88 | 92.3 | 0.95× |
| [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) | 1 in 279 | $9.15 | 1.6% | 110 | 112.7 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 275 | $9.04 | 1.6% | 111 | 114.3 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Antique (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-antique-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $8.21 | 1.6% | 136 | 125.6 | 1.08× |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-factory-new) | 1 in 249 | $8.17 | 1.6% | 117 | 126.2 | 0.93× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 1 in 187 | $6.13 | 1.6% | 166 | 168.3 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-well-worn) | 1 in 183 | $6.01 | 1.6% | 183 | 171.7 | 1.07× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-well-worn) | 1 in 182 | $6.00 | 1.6% | 148 | 172.0 | 0.86× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 171 | $5.63 | 1.6% | 187 | 183.3 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-battle-scarred) | 1 in 168 | $5.52 | 1.6% | 199 | 186.8 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $5.50 | 1.6% | 176 | 187.7 | 0.94× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 164 | $5.39 | 1.6% | 197 | 191.5 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 161 | $5.30 | 1.6% | 186 | 194.6 | 0.96× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Antique (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-field-tested) | 1 in 153 | $5.02 | 1.6% | 206 | 205.6 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-factory-new) | 1 in 151 | $4.96 | 1.6% | 180 | 208.1 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 149 | $4.91 | 1.6% | 213 | 210.0 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $4.51 | 3.6% | 477 | 512.9 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $4.30 | 3.6% | 437 | 538.1 | 0.81× |
| [XM1014 \| XOXO (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $3.59 | 3.6% | 561 | 644.5 | 0.87× |
| [XM1014 \| XOXO (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $3.34 | 3.6% | 628 | 692.8 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $3.32 | 3.6% | 654 | 696.9 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $3.17 | 3.6% | 667 | 729.9 | 0.91× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $3.09 | 3.6% | 669 | 748.7 | 0.89× |
| [P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $3.03 | 3.6% | 711 | 763.5 | 0.93× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $2.96 | 3.6% | 697 | 781.7 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $2.76 | 3.6% | 786 | 838.2 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) | 1 in 93 | $2.21 | 1.2% | 407 | 337.5 | 1.21× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 93 | $2.20 | 1.2% | 407 | 339.0 | 1.20× |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 86 | $2.05 | 1.2% | 434 | 363.8 | 1.19× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $1.40 | 1.2% | 567 | 532.4 | 1.06× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $1.24 | 1.2% | 635 | 601.2 | 1.06× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $1.14 | 1.2% | 754 | 653.9 | 1.15× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $1.12 | 1.2% | 769 | 665.8 | 1.15× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.81 | 1.2% | 998 | 920.4 | 1.08× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $0.55 | 1.6% | 1,964 | 1883.5 | 1.04× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $0.54 | 1.6% | 1,955 | 1918.4 | 1.02× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $0.36 | 1.6% | 2,882 | 2877.7 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) | 12.7% | $0.26 | 1.6% | 3,918 | 3984.3 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 19.5% | $0.17 | 1.6% | 6,243 | 6116.1 | 1.02× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/130`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) [lubie placki](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/lubie%20placki) $2.30 $208 90.60x 2026-11-04 13:51 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) [Baki skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Baki%20skins.army) $2.30 $208 90.60x 2026-11-04 00:10 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) [cebula](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/cebula) $2.30 $190 82.68x 2026-11-10 20:30 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) [daddy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/daddy) $2.30 $190 82.68x 2026-11-10 18:38 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) [RoksII\<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/RoksII%3C3) $2.30 $190 82.68x 2026-11-08 00:11 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) [mankot skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mankot%20skins.army) $2.30 $190 82.68x 2026-11-07 20:18 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) Hidden $2.30 $190 82.68x 2026-11-07 17:51 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) [puc1n1 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/puc1n1%20skins.army) $2.30 $190 82.68x 2026-11-05 18:46 UTC

[SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) [MARSI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MARSI) $2.30 $150 65.14x 2026-11-05 09:24 UTC

[SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) [bilson](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/bilson) $2.30 $150 65.14x 2026-11-05 07:17 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=130)

[StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.30 $2.76 1.20x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) [MANIUS.SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MANIUS.SKINS) $2.30 $0.17 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC

[P90 | Glacier Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $2.30 $3.03 1.32x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC

[SSG 08 | Abyss (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-well-worn) [MANIUS.SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MANIUS.SKINS) $2.30 $0.36 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC

[Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $2.30 $2.96 1.29x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $2.30 $0.17 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $2.30 $15.75 6.85x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) [Marek Towarek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Marek%20Towarek) $2.30 $2.20 0.96x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC

[M4A4 | Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.30 $0.26 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $2.30 $0.17 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $2.30 | 89.12% | 53 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $2.30 | 88.94% | 53 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% classified 6.0% restricted 12.3% violet 1.8% mil spec 16.6% pink 0.4% industrial 20.3% #8847ff 15.2% Mythical 8.2% Mil Spec Grade 0.4% #d32ee6 4.9% Restricted 2.3% #4b69ff 11.6% best hit $208 (90.60x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.12 on average: an expected loss of $10.88 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt