---
title: "Goldson case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Goldson ($0.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.07% from 52 items with odds, observed 88.99% over 429K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/131
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Goldson](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/131)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Goldson

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/131?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/131?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/131) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/131?window=all)

Price · $0.50

Advertised RTP · 89.07% · EV $0.45 from 52 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.99% · 429K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.28% ±1.24 55.1K openings

7 days · 89.01% ±0.49 354K openings

30 days · 88.99% ±0.44 429K openings

since tracking started · 88.99% ±0.44 429K openings

86.5% 88.3% 90.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/131?window=24h) | 55.1K | 88.28% ±1.24 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/131?window=7d) | 354K | 89.01% ±0.49 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/131) | 429K | 88.99% ±0.44 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/131?window=all) | 429K | 88.99% ±0.44 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 52 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 430K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $23.07 | 0.3% | 28 | 21.5 | 1.30× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $22.91 | 0.3% | 21 | 21.5 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20,000 | $21.80 | 0.2% | 10 | 21.5 | 0.47× |
| [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16,667 | $18.69 | 0.3% | 35 | 25.8 | 1.36× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $16.89 | 0.3% | 28 | 30.1 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $15.94 | 0.3% | 29 | 30.1 | 0.96× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14,286 | $15.82 | 0.2% | 35 | 30.1 | 1.16× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-field-tested) | 1 in 12,500 | $14.76 | 0.3% | 33 | 34.4 | 0.96× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12,500 | $14.01 | 0.3% | 30 | 34.4 | 0.87× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12,500 | $13.85 | 0.2% | 27 | 34.4 | 0.78× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-well-worn) | 1 in 7,143 | $7.80 | 0.2% | 69 | 60.2 | 1.15× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $7.45 | 0.3% | 66 | 64.5 | 1.02× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $7.33 | 0.2% | 49 | 64.5 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $6.99 | 0.3% | 66 | 68.8 | 0.96× |
| [Rezan The Ready \| Sabre agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/rezan-the-ready-sabre) | 1 in 6,250 | $6.78 | 0.2% | 83 | 68.8 | 1.21× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,556 | $6.30 | 0.3% | 80 | 77.4 | 1.03× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $6.30 | 0.3% | 62 | 77.4 | 0.80× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 4,545 | $5.15 | 0.3% | 78 | 94.6 | 0.82× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 680 | $4.22 | 1.4% | 633 | 632.0 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 1 in 662 | $4.10 | 1.4% | 602 | 649.2 | 0.93× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 633 | $3.92 | 1.4% | 696 | 679.3 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-field-tested) | 1 in 633 | $3.91 | 1.4% | 686 | 679.3 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 613 | $3.80 | 1.4% | 714 | 700.8 | 1.02× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 588 | $3.64 | 1.4% | 786 | 730.9 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 546 | $3.37 | 1.4% | 776 | 786.8 | 0.99× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 503 | $3.11 | 1.4% | 846 | 855.6 | 0.99× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 441 | $2.72 | 1.4% | 910 | 976.0 | 0.93× |
| [MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-well-worn) | 1 in 326 | $2.01 | 1.4% | 1,334 | 1319.9 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 274 | $1.69 | 1.4% | 1,628 | 1569.3 | 1.04× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 274 | $1.69 | 1.4% | 1,508 | 1569.3 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 270 | $1.67 | 1.4% | 1,608 | 1590.8 | 1.01× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 260 | $1.61 | 1.4% | 1,669 | 1651.0 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 231 | $1.43 | 1.4% | 1,841 | 1857.4 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-field-tested) | 1 in 230 | $1.42 | 1.4% | 1,861 | 1870.3 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-well-worn) | 1 in 191 | $1.18 | 1.4% | 2,236 | 2248.6 | 0.99× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $1.10 | 9.0% | 15,637 | 15633.0 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.85 | 9.0% | 20,424 | 20233.5 | 1.01× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.80 | 9.0% | 21,334 | 21497.6 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $0.76 | 9.0% | 22,596 | 22628.3 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.72 | 9.0% | 23,998 | 23888.1 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.45 | 2.8% | 11,999 | 11948.3 | 1.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Imprint (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-imprint-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $0.40 | 2.8% | 13,485 | 13436.0 | 1.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.36 | 2.8% | 14,887 | 14927.9 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $0.34 | 2.8% | 15,704 | 15805.0 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.31 | 2.8% | 17,460 | 17335.6 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.29 | 2.8% | 18,665 | 18530.9 | 1.01× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Imprint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-imprint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $0.28 | 1.7% | 11,585 | 11518.4 | 1.01× |
| [AUG \| Triqua (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $0.25 | 1.7% | 12,759 | 12898.5 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.25 | 1.7% | 12,854 | 12898.5 | 1.00× |
| [AUG \| Triqua (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $0.23 | 1.7% | 13,965 | 14020.7 | 1.00× |
| [AUG \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) | 18.8% | $0.04 | 1.7% | 80,905 | 80908.2 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Colony (Minimal Wear) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-minimal-wear) | 18.8% | $0.04 | 1.7% | 80,531 | 80615.8 | 1.00× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/131`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=131)

[AWP | Capillary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.50 $0.76 1.52x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.50 $0.80 1.60x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.50 $1.10 2.20x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[FAMAS | Colony (Minimal Wear) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-minimal-wear) [Szak.skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Szak.skins.army) $0.50 $0.04 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-field-tested) Hidden $0.50 $0.36 0.72x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $0.50 $0.04 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[AWP | Capillary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-battle-scarred) [b4dz1o skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/b4dz1o%20skins.army) $0.50 $0.76 1.52x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[AWP | Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) Hidden $0.50 $0.72 1.44x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[FAMAS | Colony (Minimal Wear) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-minimal-wear) [Wikus\_10 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Wikus_10%20skins.army) $0.50 $0.04 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[AWP | Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) Hidden $0.50 $0.72 1.44x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $0.50 | 89.07% | 52 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.1% #d32ee6 0.4% pink 0.0% mil spec 0.7% restricted 14.0% Mythical 4.7% #4b69ff 23.8% superior 0.0% Legendary 0.2% #8847ff 1.1% violet 0.2% blue 0.4% milspec 5.6% Uncommon 4.0% #87c7ff 4.3% industrial 3.0% consumer 18.8% #777777 18.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.07 on average: an expected loss of $10.93 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt