---
title: "Take a look case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Take a look ($5.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.97% from 55 items with odds, observed 87.73% over 4,816 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/135
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Take a look](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/135)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Take a look

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/135?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/135?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/135) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/135?window=all)

Price · $5.00

Advertised RTP · 88.97% · EV $4.45 from 55 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.73% · 4,816 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.05% ±13.29 650 openings

7 days · 89.62% ±5.28 4,112 openings

30 days · 87.73% ±4.88 4,816 openings

since tracking started · 87.71% ±4.88 4,818 openings

81.0% 95.0% 109.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/135?window=24h) | 650 | 95.05% ±13.3 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/135?window=7d) | 4,112 | 89.62% ±5.28 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/135) | 4,816 | 87.73% ±4.88 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/135?window=all) | 4,818 | 87.71% ±4.88 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 55 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,827 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $284 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $228 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $218 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 9,091 | $214 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 8,333 | $199 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-well-worn) | 1 in 5,556 | $128 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $127 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,762 | $111 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 4,348 | $101 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.80× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 3,704 | $86.58 | 0.5% | 4 | 1.3 | 3.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $79.71 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 3,030 | $71.56 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.26× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 2,941 | $69.07 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,564 | $59.82 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,326 | $54.16 | 0.5% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 2,273 | $54.03 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 2,222 | $52.51 | 0.5% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-factory-new) | 1 in 699 | $46.92 | 1.5% | 5 | 6.9 | 0.72× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-factory-new) | 1 in 524 | $35.04 | 1.5% | 14 | 9.2 | 1.52× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 505 | $33.78 | 1.5% | 8 | 9.6 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 426 | $28.51 | 1.5% | 10 | 11.3 | 0.88× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 415 | $27.74 | 1.5% | 7 | 11.6 | 0.60× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-nostalgia-factory-new) | 1 in 373 | $25.00 | 1.5% | 15 | 12.9 | 1.16× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-minimal-wear) | 1 in 328 | $21.96 | 1.5% | 17 | 14.7 | 1.15× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-field-tested) | 1 in 322 | $21.49 | 1.5% | 15 | 15.0 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 270 | $18.01 | 1.5% | 18 | 17.9 | 1.01× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 235 | $15.73 | 1.5% | 16 | 20.5 | 0.78× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 223 | $14.91 | 1.5% | 20 | 21.7 | 0.92× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 214 | $14.33 | 1.5% | 24 | 22.5 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 210 | $14.01 | 1.5% | 24 | 23.0 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 178 | $11.91 | 1.5% | 29 | 27.1 | 1.07× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 172 | $11.47 | 1.5% | 26 | 28.1 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 168 | $11.23 | 1.5% | 33 | 28.8 | 1.15× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $10.93 | 6.5% | 131 | 127.3 | 1.03× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $10.57 | 6.5% | 132 | 131.7 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $10.24 | 6.5% | 135 | 135.9 | 0.99× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $9.72 | 6.5% | 129 | 143.2 | 0.90× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $7.99 | 6.5% | 165 | 174.2 | 0.95× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $7.76 | 6.5% | 182 | 179.4 | 1.01× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4.79 | 2.2% | 99 | 96.6 | 1.02× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $4.69 | 2.2% | 97 | 98.6 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 1 in 47 | $4.50 | 2.2% | 100 | 102.8 | 0.97× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $4.44 | 2.2% | 106 | 104.2 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Well-Worn) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $4.06 | 2.2% | 124 | 113.9 | 1.09× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $3.92 | 2.2% | 115 | 118.0 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $3.83 | 2.2% | 139 | 120.8 | 1.15× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $3.69 | 2.2% | 109 | 125.4 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $3.42 | 2.2% | 156 | 135.3 | 1.15× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $2.56 | 2.2% | 172 | 180.7 | 0.95× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Silver (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-silver-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $2.56 | 2.2% | 176 | 180.7 | 0.97× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $2.12 | 2.2% | 197 | 218.2 | 0.90× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $1.45 | 0.6% | 66 | 81.6 | 0.81× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $0.77 | 0.6% | 158 | 153.6 | 1.03× |
| [AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.41 | 0.6% | 270 | 288.5 | 0.94× |
| [AUG \| Condemned (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-field-tested) | 31.4% | $0.08 | 0.6% | 1,570 | 1515.0 | 1.04× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/135`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) [Kri$](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kri%24) $5.00 $284 56.75x 2026-11-08 21:32 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=135)

[AUG | Condemned (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $0.08 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-silver-factory-new) [QnnQ1111skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/QnnQ1111skins.army) $5.00 $2.12 0.42x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[AWP | Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 $4.50 0.90x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-minimal-wear) [BIG\_Stasiu Skins](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/BIG_Stasiu%20Skins) $5.00 $3.83 0.77x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.00 $14.33 2.87x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $4.79 0.96x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC

[AUG | Condemned (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $0.08 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC

[AUG | Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) [Kasb3rg](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kasb3rg) $5.00 $9.72 1.94x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Silver (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-silver-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.00 $2.56 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-minimal-wear) [RZCrt](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/RZCrt) $5.00 $3.83 0.77x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $5.00 | 88.97% | 55 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% #eb4b4b 0.0% restricted 9.0% classified 14.4% #d32ee6 3.2% industrial 0.3% #4b69ff 7.4% #8847ff 6.9% pink 2.8% Mythical 10.3% #87c7ff 35.1% light blue 4.5% mil spec 6.0% best hit $284 (56.75x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.97 on average: an expected loss of $11.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt