---
title: "MOONWALK case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "MOONWALK ($10.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.04% from 28 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1375931
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:07Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [MOONWALK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1375931)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · MOONWALK

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1375931?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1375931?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1375931) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1375931?window=all)

Price · $10.00

Advertised RTP · 89.04% · EV $8.90 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 7.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1375931?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1375931?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1375931) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1375931?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-urban-masked-well-worn) | 1 in 1,449 | $456 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,163 | $366 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,020 | $322 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 730 | $230 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-field-tested) | 1 in 552 | $174 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 465 | $146 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-field-tested) | 1 in 365 | $115 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-field-tested) | 1 in 208 | $91.73 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 179 | $78.66 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 132 | $58.21 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 124 | $54.45 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 82 | $36.12 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $28.23 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $24.49 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-well-worn) | 1 in 55 | $24.20 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $21.68 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $21.37 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $19.38 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $16.72 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $13.42 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $13.42 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $13.27 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $10.63 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $0.45 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.34 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Armor Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-armor-core-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.26 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-night-riot-battle-scarred) | 25.7% | $0.07 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-battle-scarred) | 28.1% | $0.06 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1375931`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1375931)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $10.00 | 89.04% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 0.1% covert 8.5% extraordinary 0.8% gold 0.3% classified 5.3% #d32ee6 4.6% restricted 6.1% Legendary 5.7% #d32ce6 2.7% Mythical 5.3% mil spec 6.9% #4b69ff 53.8%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.04 on average: an expected loss of $10.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt