---
title: "SAMEY case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SAMEY ($10.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.93% from 31 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1375961
rendered: 2026-11-11T23:00Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [SAMEY](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1375961)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · SAMEY

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1375961?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1375961?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1375961) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1375961?window=all)

Price · $10.00

Advertised RTP · 88.93% · EV $8.89 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 6.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1375961?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1375961?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1375961) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1375961?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,639 | $450 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $343 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-well-worn) | 1 in 1,010 | $278 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 806 | $222 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 529 | $146 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-well-worn) | 1 in 433 | $119 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| First Class (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-battle-scarred) | 1 in 412 | $113 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 382 | $105 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 251 | $89.90 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 225 | $80.48 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 185 | $66.10 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $59.80 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 162 | $58.21 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $41.45 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 76 | $27.18 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $25.73 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $23.57 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $21.90 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $21.42 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $21.35 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $17.51 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $16.73 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $16.35 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $12.29 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $12.20 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $11.88 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $0.63 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.43 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Akoben (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-akoben-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.31 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Ricochet (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-battle-scarred) | 21.7% | $0.12 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-well-worn) | 29.8% | $0.11 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1375961`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1375961)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $10.00 | 88.93% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 4.1% covert 7.1% extraordinary 0.3% #8847ff 0.2% classified 9.3% red 2.9% restricted 1.7% Legendary 5.4% Ancient 3.1% Rare 6.0% mil spec 8.4% #4b69ff 51.4%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.93 on average: an expected loss of $11.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt