---
title: "Hydrotus case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Hydrotus ($50.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.88% from 46 items with odds, observed 85.43% over 3,060 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/138
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:12Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Hydrotus](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/138)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Hydrotus

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/138?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/138?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/138) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/138?window=all)

Price · $50.00

Advertised RTP · 88.88% · EV $44.44 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.43% · 3,060 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.48% ±20.39 334 openings

7 days · 85.61% ±7.48 2,481 openings

30 days · 85.43% ±6.74 3,060 openings

since tracking started · 85.43% ±6.74 3,060 openings

59.5% 80.5% 101.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/138?window=24h) | 334 | 80.48% ±20.4 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/138?window=7d) | 2,481 | 85.61% ±7.48 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/138) | 3,060 | 85.43% ±6.74 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/138?window=all) | 3,060 | 85.43% ±6.74 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,065 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $17.5K | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $11.9K | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) | 1 in 4,348 | $1,084 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,348 | $1,068 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 313 | $335 | 2.4% | 7 | 9.8 | 0.71× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 188 | $201 | 2.4% | 19 | 16.3 | 1.16× |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-field-tested) | 1 in 182 | $195 | 2.4% | 27 | 16.8 | 1.60× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 170 | $182 | 2.4% | 10 | 18.0 | 0.55× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 169 | $181 | 2.4% | 12 | 18.1 | 0.66× |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-field-tested) | 1 in 159 | $171 | 2.4% | 14 | 19.2 | 0.73× |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-well-worn) | 1 in 133 | $142 | 2.4% | 31 | 23.1 | 1.34× |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 129 | $138 | 2.4% | 24 | 23.8 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-battle-scarred) | 1 in 126 | $135 | 2.4% | 19 | 24.3 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 121 | $130 | 2.4% | 20 | 25.3 | 0.79× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $125 | 2.4% | 26 | 26.4 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 110 | $118 | 2.4% | 18 | 27.9 | 0.65× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 106 | $113 | 2.4% | 29 | 29.0 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 99 | $106 | 2.4% | 23 | 31.0 | 0.74× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $103 | 6.8% | 99 | 89.7 | 1.10× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $103 | 6.8% | 76 | 90.1 | 0.84× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $97.25 | 6.8% | 94 | 95.4 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $95.45 | 6.8% | 94 | 97.1 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $91.63 | 6.8% | 122 | 101.2 | 1.21× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $76.81 | 6.8% | 121 | 120.7 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $63.72 | 6.8% | 138 | 145.5 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-bloodshot-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $52.80 | 6.8% | 182 | 175.6 | 1.04× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 188 | $48.10 | 0.6% | 14 | 16.3 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 165 | $42.23 | 0.6% | 19 | 18.6 | 1.02× |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-well-worn) | 1 in 151 | $38.70 | 0.6% | 21 | 20.3 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) | 1 in 97 | $24.97 | 0.6% | 40 | 31.4 | 1.27× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $23.40 | 0.6% | 44 | 33.6 | 1.31× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $19.28 | 0.6% | 43 | 40.7 | 1.06× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 68 | $17.41 | 0.6% | 45 | 45.1 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-primal-saber-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $14.16 | 0.6% | 70 | 55.5 | 1.26× |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $13.01 | 0.6% | 49 | 60.4 | 0.81× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $12.22 | 0.6% | 67 | 64.3 | 1.04× |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $9.98 | 0.6% | 85 | 78.7 | 1.08× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $8.48 | 0.6% | 101 | 92.6 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-sacrifice-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $6.27 | 0.6% | 140 | 125.3 | 1.12× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $4.91 | 0.6% | 163 | 160.0 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-blue-fissure-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $4.71 | 0.6% | 170 | 166.8 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-blue-fissure-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $4.46 | 0.6% | 180 | 176.1 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.45 | 0.1% | 102 | 121.6 | 0.84× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.24 | 0.1% | 135 | 142.1 | 0.95× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $1.05 | 0.1% | 143 | 167.8 | 0.85× |
| [FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.83 | 0.1% | 229 | 222.0 | 1.03× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/138`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=138)

[UMP-45 | Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) Hidden $50.00 $1.24 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:27 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) [pitruu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/pitruu) $50.00 $91.63 1.83x 2026-11-11 16:27 UTC

[Tec-9 | Remote Control (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-factory-new) Hidden $50.00 $23.40 0.47x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

[Tec-9 | Remote Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-minimal-wear) Hidden $50.00 $4.91 0.10x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

[M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) [NO SIEMANOO !](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/NO%20SIEMANOO%20!) $50.00 $95.45 1.91x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $50.00 $103 2.07x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

[Tec-9 | Remote Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-minimal-wear) [Andrew](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Andrew) $50.00 $4.91 0.10x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-blue-fissure-battle-scarred) [mrouZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mrouZ) $50.00 $4.71 0.09x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

[StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-bloodshot-well-worn) Hidden $50.00 $52.80 1.06x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-blue-fissure-field-tested) [Andrew](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Andrew) $50.00 $4.46 0.09x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $50.00 | 88.88% | 46 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 25.3% classified 19.3% restricted 1.0% extraordinary 0.5% pink 0.6% #d32ee6 4.3% Classified 5.7% mil spec 14.2% industrial 5.1% #4b69ff 15.3% #8847ff 4.0% violet 4.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.88 on average: an expected loss of $11.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt