---
title: "Primary case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Primary ($9.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.02% from 62 items with odds, observed 89.03% over 5,832 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/139
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:38Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Primary](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/139)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Primary

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/139?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/139?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/139) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/139?window=all)

Price · $9.50

Advertised RTP · 89.02% · EV $8.46 from 62 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.03% · 5,832 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.71% ±12.85 631 openings

7 days · 89.54% ±4.68 4,755 openings

30 days · 89.03% ±4.23 5,832 openings

since tracking started · 89.03% ±4.23 5,832 openings

75.0% 88.5% 102.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/139?window=24h) | 631 | 88.71% ±12.8 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/139?window=7d) | 4,755 | 89.54% ±4.68 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/139) | 5,832 | 89.03% ±4.23 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/139?window=all) | 5,832 | 89.03% ±4.23 | +0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 62 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,849 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 3,846 | $275 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-well-worn) | 1 in 3,704 | $267 | 0.9% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 2,941 | $211 | 0.8% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Orion (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-orion-factory-new) | 1 in 2,439 | $175 | 0.8% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 2,222 | $161 | 0.9% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.14× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,083 | $152 | 0.9% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,667 | $120 | 0.9% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.71× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 1,515 | $109 | 0.9% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 1,493 | $108 | 0.9% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) | 1 in 1,449 | $104 | 0.8% | 6 | 4.0 | 1.49× |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 671 | $92.64 | 1.6% | 7 | 8.7 | 0.80× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 585 | $80.63 | 1.6% | 10 | 10.0 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Serum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-field-tested) | 1 in 518 | $71.48 | 1.6% | 13 | 11.3 | 1.15× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $69.08 | 1.6% | 8 | 11.7 | 0.68× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $69.08 | 1.6% | 14 | 11.7 | 1.20× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 461 | $63.43 | 1.6% | 8 | 12.7 | 0.63× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 408 | $56.33 | 1.6% | 11 | 14.3 | 0.77× |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 403 | $55.52 | 1.6% | 15 | 14.5 | 1.03× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-well-worn) | 1 in 385 | $53.08 | 1.6% | 20 | 15.2 | 1.32× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 383 | $52.80 | 1.6% | 12 | 15.3 | 0.79× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 337 | $46.40 | 1.6% | 18 | 17.4 | 1.04× |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 329 | $45.41 | 1.6% | 14 | 17.8 | 0.79× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 290 | $39.91 | 1.6% | 15 | 20.2 | 0.74× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 238 | $32.82 | 1.6% | 29 | 24.6 | 1.18× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 1 in 216 | $29.79 | 1.6% | 36 | 27.1 | 1.33× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 192 | $26.42 | 1.6% | 24 | 30.5 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 173 | $23.79 | 1.6% | 35 | 33.9 | 1.03× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 168 | $23.08 | 1.6% | 31 | 34.9 | 0.89× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 168 | $23.07 | 1.6% | 34 | 34.9 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 161 | $22.24 | 1.6% | 33 | 36.3 | 0.91× |
| [P90 \| Virus (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-factory-new) | 1 in 159 | $21.92 | 1.6% | 41 | 36.8 | 1.11× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 1 in 157 | $21.66 | 1.6% | 47 | 37.2 | 1.26× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 149 | $20.61 | 1.6% | 48 | 39.1 | 1.23× |
| [XM1014 \| XOXO (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $15.88 | 3.5% | 116 | 108.3 | 1.07× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $14.07 | 3.5% | 125 | 122.2 | 1.02× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $14.03 | 3.5% | 138 | 122.6 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $13.92 | 3.5% | 120 | 123.5 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $13.40 | 3.5% | 125 | 128.3 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $13.27 | 3.5% | 136 | 129.6 | 1.05× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $13.20 | 3.5% | 126 | 130.3 | 0.97× |
| [Nova \| Bloomstick (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $12.55 | 3.5% | 140 | 137.0 | 1.02× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $11.91 | 3.5% | 146 | 144.4 | 1.01× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $11.57 | 3.5% | 164 | 148.6 | 1.10× |
| [The Elite Mr. Muhlik \| Elite Crew agent · master](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-elite-mr-muhlik-elite-crew) | 1 in 38 | $11.10 | 3.5% | 165 | 154.9 | 1.06× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $10.76 | 3.5% | 147 | 159.8 | 0.92× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $10.46 | 3.5% | 148 | 164.4 | 0.90× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-well-worn) | 1 in 124 | $7.17 | 0.7% | 41 | 47.1 | 0.87× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $7.10 | 0.7% | 47 | 47.6 | 0.99× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-well-worn) | 1 in 102 | $5.89 | 0.7% | 54 | 57.3 | 0.94× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-field-tested) | 1 in 94 | $5.45 | 0.7% | 50 | 61.9 | 0.81× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-battle-scarred) | 1 in 68 | $3.92 | 0.7% | 81 | 86.2 | 0.94× |
| [XM1014 \| XOXO (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-well-worn) | 1 in 64 | $3.72 | 0.7% | 96 | 90.8 | 1.06× |
| [XM1014 \| XOXO (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58 | $3.37 | 0.7% | 89 | 100.2 | 0.89× |
| [Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $3.16 | 0.7% | 110 | 106.9 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.16 | 0.7% | 270 | 291.0 | 0.93× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.96 | 0.7% | 364 | 351.7 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.80 | 0.7% | 428 | 422.1 | 1.01× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-polymer-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $0.68 | 0.3% | 180 | 184.1 | 0.98× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-polymer-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $0.46 | 0.3% | 262 | 272.1 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.30 | 0.3% | 406 | 417.2 | 0.97× |
| [FAMAS \| Crypsis (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-crypsis-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.28 | 0.3% | 471 | 447.0 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.23 | 0.3% | 551 | 547.6 | 1.01× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/139`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=139)

[USP-S | Torque (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-well-worn) Hidden $9.50 $0.80 0.08x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

[P250 | Muertos (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-well-worn) [SPENISON](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SPENISON) $9.50 $14.03 1.48x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

[SG 553 | Integrale (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-battle-scarred) Hidden $9.50 $3.92 0.41x 2026-11-11 17:27 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-polymer-field-tested) Hidden $9.50 $0.68 0.07x 2026-11-11 17:27 UTC

[P90 | Trigon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-minimal-wear) [Wujek CSGOSKINS #CASEHUG](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Wujek%20CSGOSKINS%20%23CASEHUG) $9.50 $13.20 1.39x 2026-11-11 17:27 UTC

[P250 | Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) [Grzegorz Braun](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Grzegorz%20Braun) $9.50 $23.08 2.43x 2026-11-11 17:15 UTC

[USP-S | Torque (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-well-worn) [m1HEJZi\_skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/m1HEJZi_skins.army) $9.50 $0.80 0.08x 2026-11-11 17:15 UTC

[USP-S | Torque (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-well-worn) [Grzegorz Braun](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Grzegorz%20Braun) $9.50 $0.80 0.08x 2026-11-11 17:15 UTC

[AWP | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) [m1HEJZi\_skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/m1HEJZi_skins.army) $9.50 $0.23 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:15 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-factory-new) Hidden $9.50 $0.96 0.10x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $9.50 | 89.02% | 62 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.9% #d32ee6 7.6% classified 28.0% Mil Spec Grade 0.1% mil spec 15.4% Ancient 0.3% Classified 0.4% pink 0.6% violet 0.6% restricted 1.4% #d32ce6 2.1% Legendary 2.2% master 2.6% #4b69ff 13.8% blue 7.2% industrial 7.1% Uncommon 9.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.02 on average: an expected loss of $10.98 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt