---
title: "Denis case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Denis ($6.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.97% from 46 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1392957
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Denis](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1392957)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Denis

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1392957?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1392957?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1392957) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1392957?window=all)

Price · $6.00

Advertised RTP · 88.97% · EV $5.34 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1392957?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1392957?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1392957) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1392957?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $489 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $252 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $247 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,639 | $164 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 1,099 | $110 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,099 | $110 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 741 | $74.28 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 283 | $50.03 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 145 | $25.56 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $23.56 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 123 | $21.82 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $20.90 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 102 | $17.95 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $17.59 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $17.04 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 95 | $16.73 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Carved Jade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $15.38 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $13.50 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $13.16 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $11.90 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) | 1 in 55 | $11.09 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $10.42 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $9.18 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $8.78 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $8.72 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $7.50 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $6.71 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $6.63 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $6.34 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $5.90 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $4.91 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $4.68 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $3.37 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $2.84 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $2.58 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $1.72 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.92 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $0.74 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $0.62 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $0.60 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $0.43 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.31 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Tom Cat (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.24 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.16 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Tom Cat (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.15 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 14.0% | $0.09 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1392957`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1392957)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $6.00 | 88.97% | 46 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.0% covert 8.7% classified 7.8% #d32ee6 1.6% pink 0.7% Ancient 0.8% industrial 14.9% restricted 17.0% mil spec 5.1% #8847ff 7.4% Legendary 8.1% Restricted 3.2% Mythical 1.1% violet 2.8% #4b69ff 5.1% Uncommon 7.6% milspec 8.1%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.97 on average: an expected loss of $11.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt