---
title: "Grendy case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Grendy ($60.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.95% from 43 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1393836
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:37Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Grendy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1393836)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Grendy

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1393836?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1393836?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1393836) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1393836?window=all)

Price · $60.00

Advertised RTP · 88.95% · EV $53.37 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 5.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1393836?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1393836?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1393836) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1393836?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $5,454 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,704 | $3,275 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,030 | $2,649 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 2,128 | $1,852 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,613 | $1,401 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 1,266 | $1,104 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,136 | $993 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 840 | $733 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 267 | $528 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 257 | $510 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-field-tested) | 1 in 231 | $458 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 196 | $390 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 161 | $319 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 132 | $262 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 102 | $202 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 101 | $200 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $173 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $150 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $129 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $120 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $118 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $110 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $110 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $103 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $76.62 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $75.95 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $67.18 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $62.85 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 109 | $54.64 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 103 | $51.66 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-well-worn) | 1 in 76 | $37.84 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $29.58 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $23.19 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $19.31 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $12.70 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $7.34 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $5.08 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $0.42 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $0.37 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-corinthian-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.30 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-flame-test-field-tested) | 13.0% | $0.10 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1393836`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1393836)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $60.00 | 88.95% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 20.4% extraordinary 0.5% sunny 0.3% gold 0.1% epic 0.4% classified 11.5% #ffd700 1.3% restricted 12.2% #eb4b4b 2.9% violet 2.6% mil spec 3.9% Legendary 9.8% milspec 3.1% blue 10.8% #4b69ff 20.2%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.95 on average: an expected loss of $11.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt