---
title: "Black widow case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Black widow ($6.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.97% from 44 items with odds, observed 88.28% over 7,291 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/142
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:34Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Black widow](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/142)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Black widow

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/142?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/142?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/142) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/142?window=all)

Price · $6.00

Advertised RTP · 88.97% · EV $5.34 from 44 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.28% · 7,291 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.58% ±9.44 1,231 openings

7 days · 89.45% ±4.24 6,082 openings

30 days · 88.28% ±3.88 7,291 openings

since tracking started · 88.28% ±3.88 7,291 openings

77.5% 87.5% 97.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/142?window=24h) | 1,231 | 87.58% ±9.44 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/142?window=7d) | 6,082 | 89.45% ±4.24 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/142) | 7,291 | 88.28% ±3.88 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/142?window=all) | 7,291 | 88.28% ±3.88 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,298 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 1,923 | $134 | 1.3% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-factory-new) | 1 in 1,754 | $122 | 1.3% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.96× |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,220 | $84.21 | 1.3% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,149 | $79.49 | 1.3% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.10× |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 1,053 | $72.99 | 1.3% | 5 | 6.9 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 980 | $67.57 | 1.3% | 9 | 7.4 | 1.21× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 1 in 962 | $66.35 | 1.3% | 6 | 7.6 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) | 1 in 935 | $64.32 | 1.3% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.02× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 901 | $59.15 | 1.2% | 11 | 8.1 | 1.36× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 901 | $59.00 | 1.2% | 5 | 8.1 | 0.62× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 847 | $55.33 | 1.2% | 10 | 8.6 | 1.16× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 800 | $52.37 | 1.2% | 6 | 9.1 | 0.66× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 794 | $51.88 | 1.2% | 8 | 9.2 | 0.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 709 | $46.37 | 1.2% | 13 | 10.3 | 1.26× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 680 | $44.67 | 1.2% | 17 | 10.7 | 1.58× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 599 | $39.18 | 1.2% | 11 | 12.2 | 0.90× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 585 | $38.27 | 1.2% | 15 | 12.5 | 1.20× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 476 | $31.23 | 1.2% | 22 | 15.3 | 1.44× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 459 | $30.05 | 1.2% | 18 | 15.9 | 1.13× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) | 1 in 418 | $27.41 | 1.2% | 22 | 17.4 | 1.26× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-factory-new) | 1 in 407 | $26.58 | 1.2% | 12 | 18.0 | 0.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 395 | $25.85 | 1.2% | 18 | 18.5 | 0.97× |
| [MP7 \| Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) | 1 in 364 | $23.84 | 1.2% | 24 | 20.1 | 1.20× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 352 | $23.07 | 1.2% | 18 | 20.7 | 0.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 334 | $21.89 | 1.2% | 17 | 21.8 | 0.78× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-field-tested) | 1 in 328 | $21.49 | 1.2% | 15 | 22.3 | 0.67× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 312 | $20.38 | 1.2% | 25 | 23.4 | 1.07× |
| [Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 310 | $20.31 | 1.2% | 22 | 23.6 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 270 | $17.71 | 1.2% | 27 | 27.0 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 245 | $16.04 | 1.2% | 28 | 29.8 | 0.94× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 233 | $15.27 | 1.2% | 31 | 31.3 | 0.99× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-field-tested) | 1 in 228 | $14.95 | 1.2% | 36 | 32.0 | 1.13× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 222 | $14.52 | 1.2% | 28 | 32.9 | 0.85× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 211 | $13.82 | 1.2% | 36 | 34.6 | 1.04× |
| [MP7 \| Skulls (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 207 | $13.59 | 1.2% | 40 | 35.2 | 1.14× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 202 | $13.26 | 1.2% | 25 | 36.1 | 0.69× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 202 | $13.22 | 1.2% | 32 | 36.2 | 0.88× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $12.61 | 8.3% | 250 | 256.6 | 0.97× |
| [P90 \| Blind Spot (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $11.70 | 8.3% | 277 | 276.5 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $11.48 | 8.3% | 283 | 281.8 | 1.00× |
| [Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $10.78 | 8.3% | 314 | 300.2 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $8.65 | 8.3% | 352 | 374.0 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $7.08 | 8.3% | 478 | 457.0 | 1.05× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) | 64.4% | $0.35 | 4.2% | 4,707 | 4701.0 | 1.00× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/142`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=142)

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) [User0 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/User0%20skins.army) $6.00 $0.35 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) [brzozq](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/brzozq) $6.00 $0.35 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC

[StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-battle-scarred) [Mati -\_-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Mati%20-_-) $6.00 $8.65 1.44x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) [76561199054196333](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/76561199054196333) $6.00 $0.35 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) Hidden $6.00 $0.35 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

[FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-minimal-wear) [76561199054196333](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/76561199054196333) $6.00 $11.48 1.91x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

[P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-factory-new) Hidden $6.00 $11.70 1.95x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) Hidden $6.00 $0.35 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) [マッコ MTS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E3%83%9E%E3%83%83%E3%82%B3%20MTS) $6.00 $0.35 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[Nova | Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.00 $10.78 1.80x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $6.00 | 88.97% | 44 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Mythical 3.8% #eb4b4b 0.1% restricted 4.8% covert 0.5% industrial 1.2% classified 12.9% mil spec 4.9% blue 0.3% #d32ee6 0.4% Industrial Grade 0.5% rare 6.3% #4b69ff 64.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.97 on average: an expected loss of $11.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt