---
title: "Dawid Malarz case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Dawid Malarz ($40.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.89% from 31 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1427024
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Dawid Malarz](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1427024)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Dawid Malarz

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1427024?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1427024?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1427024) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1427024?window=all)

Price · $40.00

Advertised RTP · 88.89% · EV $35.55 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 6.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1427024?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1427024?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1427024) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1427024?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,250 | $3,448 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $2,879 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,167 | $2,282 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 2,857 | $1,568 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,754 | $968 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 1,282 | $711 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 806 | $448 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-field-tested) | 1 in 758 | $421 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 752 | $419 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 196 | $393 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-field-tested) | 1 in 131 | $262 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 101 | $202 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $130 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $120 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $95.11 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $89.30 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $84.93 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $78.52 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $74.59 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $64.83 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $63.23 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $53.70 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $44.29 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $41.64 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $40.57 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $1.81 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $1.42 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $0.80 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $0.51 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-well-worn) | 15.5% | $0.20 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-well-worn) | 31.4% | $0.10 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1427024`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1427024)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $40.00 | 88.89% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 2.6% covert 19.6% gold 0.1% classified 12.1% #eb4b4b 2.2% red 4.4% Mythical 2.2% restricted 10.0% #4b69ff 46.9%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.89 on average: an expected loss of $11.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt