---
title: "Waterproof case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Waterproof ($20.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.93% from 30 items with odds, observed 87.91% over 1,435 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/144
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:12Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Waterproof](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/144)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Waterproof

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/144?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/144?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/144) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/144?window=all)

Price · $20.00

Advertised RTP · 88.93% · EV $17.79 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.91% · 1,435 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.54% ±31.74 156 openings

7 days · 86.78% ±12.02 1,088 openings

30 days · 87.91% ±10.47 1,435 openings

since tracking started · 87.91% ±10.47 1,435 openings

59.0% 91.5% 124.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/144?window=24h) | 156 | 91.54% ±31.7 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/144?window=7d) | 1,088 | 86.78% ±12.0 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/144) | 1,435 | 87.91% ±10.5 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/144?window=all) | 1,435 | 87.91% ±10.5 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,437 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 1,220 | $559 | 2.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 1,099 | $501 | 2.6% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 943 | $432 | 2.6% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 787 | $360 | 2.6% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 592 | $271 | 2.6% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.65× |
| [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 578 | $264 | 2.6% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.21× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 562 | $258 | 2.6% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 467 | $161 | 1.9% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 337 | $116 | 1.9% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.17× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 332 | $114 | 1.9% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.92× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 313 | $108 | 1.9% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.09× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 269 | $92.51 | 1.9% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 237 | $81.48 | 1.9% | 4 | 6.1 | 0.66× |
| [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 231 | $79.56 | 1.9% | 9 | 6.2 | 1.45× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 227 | $78.22 | 1.9% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.11× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 227 | $78.21 | 1.9% | 5 | 6.3 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 208 | $71.69 | 1.9% | 11 | 6.9 | 1.59× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 164 | $56.25 | 1.9% | 9 | 8.8 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 153 | $52.66 | 1.9% | 8 | 9.4 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 149 | $51.10 | 1.9% | 11 | 9.7 | 1.14× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 145 | $49.74 | 1.9% | 9 | 9.9 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $45.64 | 1.9% | 6 | 10.8 | 0.55× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 122 | $41.77 | 1.9% | 18 | 11.8 | 1.52× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $38.45 | 8.4% | 49 | 55.8 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-mehndi-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $36.26 | 8.4% | 64 | 59.2 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $35.51 | 8.4% | 76 | 60.4 | 1.26× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $35.48 | 8.4% | 68 | 60.5 | 1.12× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $31.48 | 8.4% | 75 | 68.2 | 1.10× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $26.71 | 8.4% | 79 | 80.3 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 64.4% | $0.19 | 0.7% | 897 | 925.5 | 0.97× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/144`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=144)

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) [sepko](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/sepko) $20.00 $51.10 2.56x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC

[AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) Hidden $20.00 $35.51 1.78x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Slowik (COACH) skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Slowik%20%28COACH%29%20skins.army) $20.00 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC

[AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) Hidden $20.00 $35.51 1.78x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) Hidden $20.00 $35.48 1.77x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) [avi](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/avi) $20.00 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $20.00 | 88.93% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 9.4% classified 11.2% restricted 0.6% red 4.1% #eb4b4b 5.4% Ancient 0.8% #d32ee6 4.1% industrial 64.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.93 on average: an expected loss of $11.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt