---
title: "PPL case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "PPL ($12.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.84% from 43 items with odds, observed 91.80% over 3,441 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460038
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:37Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [PPL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460038)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · PPL

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460038?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460038?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460038) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460038?window=all)

Price · $12.00

Advertised RTP · 88.84% · EV $10.66 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.80% · 3,441 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.44% ±17.13 496 openings

7 days · 89.24% ±7.28 2,744 openings

30 days · 91.80% ±6.51 3,441 openings

since tracking started · 91.80% ±6.51 3,441 openings

63.5% 81.3% 99.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460038?window=24h) | 496 | 81.44% ±17.1 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460038?window=7d) | 2,744 | 89.24% ±7.28 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460038) | 3,441 | 91.80% ±6.51 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460038?window=all) | 3,441 | 91.80% ±6.51 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,451 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $349 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-well-worn) | 1 in 2,564 | $320 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Field-Tested) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $307 | 1.2% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.17× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,083 | $258 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,961 | $244 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.14× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 1,587 | $197 | 1.2% | 5 | 2.2 | 2.30× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 1,538 | $189 | 1.2% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.89× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,190 | $147 | 1.2% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.38× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,149 | $141 | 1.2% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,111 | $138 | 1.2% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.64× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 1,053 | $130 | 1.2% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.31× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-field-tested) | 1 in 980 | $121 | 1.2% | 1 | 3.5 | 0.28× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) | 1 in 490 | $117 | 2.2% | 8 | 7.0 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 437 | $105 | 2.2% | 8 | 7.9 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested) | 1 in 346 | $82.79 | 2.2% | 6 | 10.0 | 0.60× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $79.70 | 2.2% | 13 | 10.4 | 1.26× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 314 | $75.14 | 2.2% | 11 | 11.0 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 309 | $73.82 | 2.2% | 13 | 11.2 | 1.16× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 299 | $71.59 | 2.2% | 12 | 11.5 | 1.04× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 290 | $69.33 | 2.2% | 14 | 11.9 | 1.18× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 245 | $58.63 | 2.2% | 16 | 14.1 | 1.14× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 229 | $54.85 | 2.2% | 17 | 15.0 | 1.13× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-field-tested) | 1 in 225 | $53.90 | 2.2% | 17 | 15.3 | 1.11× |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) | 1 in 195 | $46.72 | 2.2% | 19 | 17.7 | 1.08× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 182 | $43.49 | 2.2% | 25 | 19.0 | 1.32× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 151 | $36.00 | 2.2% | 27 | 22.9 | 1.18× |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-factory-new) | 1 in 126 | $30.06 | 2.2% | 24 | 27.5 | 0.87× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $26.65 | 2.2% | 19 | 31.0 | 0.61× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) | 1 in 110 | $26.40 | 2.2% | 36 | 31.3 | 1.15× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 102 | $24.50 | 2.2% | 46 | 33.7 | 1.37× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $23.07 | 7.3% | 112 | 116.2 | 0.96× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $22.08 | 7.3% | 120 | 121.4 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $19.28 | 7.3% | 131 | 139.0 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $17.96 | 7.3% | 157 | 149.2 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Justice (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-justice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $16.70 | 7.3% | 190 | 160.5 | 1.18× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-eastern-enigma-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $14.54 | 7.3% | 209 | 184.4 | 1.13× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $2.19 | 0.3% | 38 | 47.3 | 0.80× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $0.56 | 0.3% | 194 | 184.9 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-clear-polymer-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.35 | 0.3% | 248 | 295.8 | 0.84× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.35 | 0.3% | 274 | 295.8 | 0.93× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-well-worn) | 10.3% | $0.29 | 0.3% | 349 | 357.0 | 0.98× |
| [P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 14.3% | $0.21 | 0.3% | 513 | 493.0 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-minimal-wear) | 16.5% | $0.20 | 0.3% | 563 | 570.8 | 0.99× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1460038`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1460038)

[Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-eastern-enigma-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.00 $14.54 1.21x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.00 $19.28 1.61x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC

[Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-minimal-wear) [Czarny Eriko](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Czarny%20Eriko) $12.00 $0.20 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC

[AK-47 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) [abuk](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/abuk) $12.00 $17.96 1.50x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC

[P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-minimal-wear) [karpiuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/karpiuu) $12.00 $0.56 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:10 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.00 $19.28 1.61x 2026-11-11 21:10 UTC

[Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-well-worn) [TarAntula](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/TarAntula) $12.00 $0.29 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:10 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Justice (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-justice-minimal-wear) [abuk](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/abuk) $12.00 $16.70 1.39x 2026-11-11 21:10 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Justice (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-justice-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.00 $16.70 1.39x 2026-11-11 21:01 UTC

[MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) Hidden $12.00 $117 9.77x 2026-11-11 21:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $12.00 | 88.84% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.2% extraordinary 0.7% sunny 0.1% classified 13.7% #eb4b4b 0.3% red 0.3% covert knife 0.3% Covert 0.4% gold 0.5% Ancient 0.7% pink 7.0% restricted 4.0% #d32ee6 4.7% mil spec 1.4% Rare 5.4% milspec 17.1% #4b69ff 24.6% blue 16.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.84 on average: an expected loss of $11.16 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt