---
title: "Winchester case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Winchester ($55.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.97% from 22 items with odds, observed 97.62% over 687 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460151
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Winchester](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460151)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Winchester

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460151?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460151?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460151) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460151?window=all)

Price · $55.00

Advertised RTP · 88.97% · EV $48.93 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 97.62% · 687 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 154.59% ±43.34 141 openings

7 days · 108.12% ±21.30 584 openings

30 days · 97.62% ±19.64 687 openings

since tracking started · 97.62% ±19.64 687 openings

77.5% 138.0% 198.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460151?window=24h) | 141 | 154.59% ±43.3 | +3.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460151?window=7d) | 584 | 108.12% ±21.3 | +1.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460151) | 687 | 97.62% ±19.6 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460151?window=all) | 687 | 97.62% ±19.6 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 687 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,250 | $5,218 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 3,448 | $2,808 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,857 | $2,385 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,564 | $2,110 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,724 | $1,432 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,176 | $975 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 971 | $805 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 943 | $777 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 909 | $752 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) | 1 in 820 | $678 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 800 | $663 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 676 | $559 | 1.7% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.98× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 110 | $477 | 8.8% | 3 | 6.2 | 0.48× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $214 | 8.8% | 12 | 13.9 | 0.87× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 47 | $201 | 8.8% | 11 | 14.7 | 0.75× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $179 | 8.8% | 22 | 16.5 | 1.33× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $151 | 8.8% | 17 | 19.6 | 0.87× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $140 | 8.8% | 19 | 21.2 | 0.90× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $130 | 8.8% | 20 | 22.9 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $121 | 8.8% | 25 | 24.6 | 1.02× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $95.95 | 8.8% | 31 | 30.9 | 1.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-well-worn) | 74.2% | $0.18 | 0.3% | 518 | 509.8 | 1.02× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1460151`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $55.00 $5,218 94.87x 2026-11-11 04:10 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) Hidden $55.00 $2,385 43.37x 2026-11-05 21:27 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $55.00 $975 17.73x 2026-11-06 17:03 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) Hidden $55.00 $805 14.63x 2026-11-07 04:46 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $55.00 $777 14.13x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $55.00 $752 13.67x 2026-11-10 00:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) Hidden $55.00 $678 12.32x 2026-11-10 00:46 UTC

[★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $55.00 $663 12.05x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $55.00 $559 10.16x 2026-11-07 04:46 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1460151)

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-well-worn) Hidden $55.00 $0.18 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-well-worn) Hidden $55.00 $0.18 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Eck0](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Eck0) $55.00 $201 3.66x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $55.00 $140 2.55x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-well-worn) Hidden $55.00 $0.18 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-well-worn) [Eck0](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Eck0) $55.00 $0.18 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-well-worn) Hidden $55.00 $0.18 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:47 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $55.00 $130 2.36x 2026-11-11 19:47 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-well-worn) [Eck0](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Eck0) $55.00 $0.18 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:47 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-well-worn) Hidden $55.00 $0.18 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $55.00 | 88.97% | 22 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 19.6% legendary 0.0% sunny 1.0% classified 2.1% gold 0.1% #ffd700 0.1% extraordinary 2.9% #4b69ff 74.2% best hit $5,218 (94.87x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.97 on average: an expected loss of $11.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt