---
title: "Szeli case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Szeli ($8.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.94% from 43 items with odds, observed 91.22% over 12.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460313
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Szeli](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460313)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Szeli

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460313?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460313?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460313) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460313?window=all)

Price · $8.00

Advertised RTP · 88.94% · EV $7.12 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.22% · 12.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 6.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 94.27% ±11.37 2,000 openings

7 days · 92.05% ±5.03 10.2K openings

30 days · 91.22% ±4.62 12.1K openings

since tracking started · 91.22% ±4.62 12.1K openings

82.5% 94.5% 106.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460313?window=24h) | 2,000 | 94.27% ±11.4 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460313?window=7d) | 10.2K | 92.05% ±5.03 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460313) | 12.1K | 91.22% ±4.62 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1460313?window=all) | 12.1K | 91.22% ±4.62 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 11,111 | $689 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 9,091 | $590 | 0.9% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.25× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $524 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.69× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $489 | 0.9% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.53× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $393 | 0.9% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.06× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,556 | $364 | 0.9% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-well-worn) | 1 in 5,263 | $339 | 0.9% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $317 | 0.9% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 3,571 | $224 | 0.9% | 10 | 3.4 | 2.94× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 3,226 | $208 | 0.9% | 8 | 3.8 | 2.12× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-well-worn) | 1 in 2,632 | $168 | 0.9% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $157 | 0.9% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,381 | $153 | 0.9% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.78× |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,381 | $152 | 0.9% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 2,083 | $133 | 0.9% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,724 | $109 | 0.9% | 4 | 7.0 | 0.57× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,639 | $104 | 0.9% | 10 | 7.4 | 1.35× |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,613 | $103 | 0.9% | 3 | 7.5 | 0.40× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-field-tested) | 1 in 1,449 | $91.70 | 0.9% | 9 | 8.4 | 1.07× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 1,351 | $86.00 | 0.9% | 10 | 9.0 | 1.11× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 1,351 | $85.73 | 0.9% | 5 | 9.0 | 0.56× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 1,282 | $81.36 | 0.9% | 8 | 9.5 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 251 | $66.98 | 3.7% | 48 | 48.3 | 0.99× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 219 | $58.56 | 3.8% | 63 | 55.4 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 163 | $43.57 | 3.7% | 62 | 74.3 | 0.83× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $26.67 | 3.7% | 91 | 121.5 | 0.75× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $26.59 | 3.7% | 136 | 121.8 | 1.12× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 99 | $26.47 | 3.8% | 121 | 122.5 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $25.70 | 3.7% | 142 | 126.1 | 1.13× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 74 | $19.67 | 3.7% | 151 | 164.7 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 73 | $19.56 | 3.7% | 171 | 165.7 | 1.03× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $16.01 | 7.3% | 393 | 392.0 | 1.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $15.70 | 7.3% | 371 | 399.8 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $15.33 | 7.3% | 419 | 409.4 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $14.71 | 7.3% | 422 | 426.6 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $12.27 | 7.3% | 531 | 511.6 | 1.04× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $10.84 | 7.3% | 629 | 579.0 | 1.09× |
| [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.54 | 0.5% | 827 | 802.5 | 1.03× |
| [AUG \| Tom Cat (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.48 | 0.5% | 891 | 902.6 | 0.99× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.41 | 0.5% | 1,045 | 1056.8 | 0.99× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-night-riot-battle-scarred) | 12.3% | $0.29 | 0.5% | 1,457 | 1494.1 | 0.98× |
| [P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 15.5% | $0.23 | 0.5% | 1,882 | 1883.8 | 1.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 18.0% | $0.20 | 0.5% | 2,191 | 2184.7 | 1.00× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1460313`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) [kek.](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kek.) $8.00 $689 86.09x 2026-11-09 20:24 UTC

[Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) Hidden $8.00 $590 73.70x 2026-11-11 11:40 UTC

[Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) [kvxcpiskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kvxcpiskins.army) $8.00 $590 73.70x 2026-11-09 22:37 UTC

[Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) [Krzychu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Krzychu) $8.00 $590 73.70x 2026-11-08 18:47 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.00 $524 65.46x 2026-11-08 19:24 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [kowsonn7](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kowsonn7) $8.00 $489 61.13x 2026-11-05 19:40 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [preTTi](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/preTTi) $8.00 $489 61.13x 2026-11-05 18:04 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $8.00 $489 61.13x 2026-11-04 00:24 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [j.](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/j.) $8.00 $489 61.13x 2026-11-03 19:09 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1460313)

[P2000 | Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-field-tested) Hidden $8.00 $0.23 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC

[P2000 | Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-field-tested) Hidden $8.00 $0.23 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC

[XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-field-tested) Hidden $8.00 $0.20 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC

[AUG | Tom Cat (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-well-worn) [r4geee](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/r4geee) $8.00 $0.48 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.00 $0.41 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC

[AUG | Tom Cat (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-well-worn) Hidden $8.00 $0.48 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.00 $15.70 1.96x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC

[XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-field-tested) [r4geee](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/r4geee) $8.00 $0.20 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC

[AWP | Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) Hidden $8.00 $12.27 1.53x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC

[MAG-7 | Monster Call (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-field-tested) Hidden $8.00 $0.54 0.07x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $8.00 | 88.94% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 8.7% covert 1.5% classified 21.2% #ffd700 0.0% sunny 0.0% extraordinary 0.3% red 0.0% Ancient 0.4% #d32ce6 8.1% Mythical 6.6% #4b69ff 35.2% mil spec 18.0% best hit $689 (86.09x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.94 on average: an expected loss of $11.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt