--- title: "1pro1noob case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "1pro1noob ($3.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.95% from 36 items with odds, observed 90.53% over 10.8K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1469215 rendered: 2026-11-11T22:15Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [1pro1noob](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1469215) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · 1pro1noob A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1469215?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1469215?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1469215) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1469215?window=all) Price · $3.50 Advertised RTP · 88.95% · EV $3.11 from 36 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.53% · 10.8K openings, odds method Variance · 5.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 88.50% ±14.43 1,007 openings 7 days · 90.95% ±4.84 8,940 openings 30 days · 90.53% ±4.41 10.8K openings since tracking started · 90.53% ±4.41 10.8K openings 73.5% 88.5% 103.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1469215?window=24h) | 1,007 | 88.50% ±14.4 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1469215?window=7d) | 8,940 | 90.95% ±4.84 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1469215) | 10.8K | 90.53% ±4.41 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1469215?window=all) | 10.8K | 90.53% ±4.41 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.8K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 4,762 | $199 | 1.3% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.76× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,226 | $138 | 1.4% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.49× | | [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $121 | 1.4% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.32× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,326 | $100 | 1.4% | 6 | 4.7 | 1.29× | | [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,174 | $93.97 | 1.4% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.80× | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 2,174 | $93.15 | 1.4% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.20× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,887 | $80.61 | 1.4% | 8 | 5.7 | 1.39× | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,408 | $60.26 | 1.4% | 9 | 7.7 | 1.17× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 1,351 | $57.64 | 1.4% | 9 | 8.0 | 1.12× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 1,163 | $49.49 | 1.4% | 12 | 9.3 | 1.29× | | [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 1,042 | $44.53 | 1.4% | 9 | 10.4 | 0.86× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 980 | $41.87 | 1.4% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× | | [Nova \| Tempest (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-factory-new) | 1 in 901 | $38.57 | 1.4% | 13 | 12.0 | 1.08× | | [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 176 | $28.68 | 5.2% | 60 | 61.5 | 0.98× | | [M4A4 \| Falak (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-well-worn) | 1 in 131 | $21.33 | 5.2% | 78 | 82.7 | 0.94× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 129 | $21.01 | 5.2% | 83 | 83.8 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-colony-iv-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $17.13 | 5.2% | 110 | 102.9 | 1.07× | | [AUG \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 103 | $16.79 | 5.2% | 92 | 105.0 | 0.88× | | [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $14.87 | 5.2% | 135 | 118.6 | 1.14× | | [Nova \| Antique (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $13.01 | 5.2% | 122 | 135.5 | 0.90× | | [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-well-worn) | 1 in 78 | $12.63 | 5.2% | 102 | 139.6 | 0.73× | | [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $6.59 | 3.9% | 199 | 198.5 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $5.92 | 3.9% | 236 | 221.1 | 1.07× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $5.86 | 3.9% | 203 | 223.2 | 0.91× | | [MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $5.36 | 3.9% | 246 | 244.1 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $4.92 | 3.9% | 279 | 266.0 | 1.05× | | [AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $4.72 | 3.9% | 261 | 277.2 | 0.94× | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $4.51 | 3.9% | 319 | 290.2 | 1.10× | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $3.85 | 3.9% | 321 | 339.8 | 0.94× | | [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $3.33 | 1.3% | 134 | 136.3 | 0.98× | | [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $1.56 | 1.3% | 304 | 291.0 | 1.04× | | [MAC-10 \| Allure (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-battle-scarred) | 10.5% | $0.40 | 1.3% | 1,111 | 1135.0 | 0.98× | | [MP5-SD \| Desert Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.35 | 1.3% | 1,331 | 1297.2 | 1.03× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 13.5% | $0.31 | 1.3% | 1,448 | 1464.6 | 0.99× | | [Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-well-worn) | 14.4% | $0.29 | 1.3% | 1,585 | 1565.5 | 1.01× | | [P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-battle-scarred) | 18.2% | $0.23 | 1.3% | 1,988 | 1979.3 | 1.00× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1469215`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-field-tested) [SraxCASE.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SraxCASE.GIFT) $3.50 $199 56.92x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-field-tested) [PiteRRRo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/PiteRRRo) $3.50 $199 56.92x 2026-11-10 15:27 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-field-tested) [S A I Y A N](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/S%20A%20I%20Y%20A%20N) $3.50 $199 56.92x 2026-11-06 08:58 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $3.50 $199 56.92x 2026-11-03 03:06 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1469215) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $3.50 $0.31 0.09x 2026-11-11 22:11 UTC [P2000 | Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.50 $0.23 0.07x 2026-11-11 22:11 UTC [MAC-10 | Allure (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.50 $0.40 0.11x 2026-11-11 22:11 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [niedolot](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/niedolot) $3.50 $0.31 0.09x 2026-11-11 22:11 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $3.50 $0.31 0.09x 2026-11-11 22:02 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) [Grzegorz Braun](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Grzegorz%20Braun) $3.50 $4.92 1.41x 2026-11-11 22:02 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $3.50 $0.31 0.09x 2026-11-11 22:02 UTC [MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-field-tested) [Bobby niebieskonogi](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Bobby%20niebieskonogi) $3.50 $0.35 0.10x 2026-11-11 22:02 UTC [MP9 | Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-well-worn) Hidden $3.50 $5.36 1.53x 2026-11-11 22:00 UTC [Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-well-worn) Hidden $3.50 $0.29 0.08x 2026-11-11 22:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $3.50 | 88.95% | 36 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #ffd700 0.0% covert 0.4% classified 7.9% extraordinary 0.1% #4b69ff 58.2% Ancient 0.1% blue 0.1% violet 0.6% pink 0.8% #d32ee6 1.2% red 1.3% Classified 2.0% Restricted 2.1% restricted 8.1% Legendary 2.7% Mythical 3.9% #8847ff 10.5% best hit $199 (56.92x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.95 on average: an expected loss of $11.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt