---
title: "Grill Thrill case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Grill Thrill ($4.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.89% from 30 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1489659
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:54Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Grill Thrill](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1489659)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Grill Thrill

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1489659?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1489659?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1489659) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1489659?window=all)

Price · $4.50

Advertised RTP · 88.89% · EV $4.00 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 7.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1489659?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1489659?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1489659) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1489659?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,882 | $422 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-well-worn) | 1 in 3,571 | $251 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 2,941 | $204 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 2,778 | $192 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $175 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,174 | $151 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-field-tested) | 1 in 1,220 | $84.97 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-well-worn) | 1 in 1,124 | $78.57 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 962 | $67.23 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 719 | $50.29 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 296 | $44.42 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 287 | $43.06 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 253 | $37.91 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 166 | $24.88 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $21.43 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 129 | $19.35 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 1 in 117 | $17.52 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $13.48 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-factory-new) | 1 in 88 | $13.16 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $11.99 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 65 | $9.77 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 62 | $9.29 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $8.68 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $7.88 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $7.78 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $6.73 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $6.73 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $6.49 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $5.98 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 67.8% | $0.03 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1489659`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1489659)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $4.50 | 88.89% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 6.3% extraordinary 0.1% #ffd700 0.1% classified 4.5% pink 1.1% Legendary 1.5% Mythical 2.7% #4b69ff 2.7% Ancient 3.1% #d32ee6 3.1% #8847ff 3.3% Classified 3.5% consumer 67.8%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.89 on average: an expected loss of $11.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt