---
title: "Lazy Surge case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Lazy Surge ($9.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.90% from 29 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1489685
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Lazy Surge](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1489685)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Lazy Surge

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1489685?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1489685?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1489685) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1489685?window=all)

Price · $9.00

Advertised RTP · 88.90% · EV $8.00 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 5.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 63.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1489685?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1489685?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1489685) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1489685?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $699 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,882 | $606 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $506 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $251 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,041 | $205 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 1,852 | $184 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 1,149 | $115 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 267 | $85.88 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-battle-scarred) | 1 in 232 | $74.52 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 229 | $73.59 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 224 | $71.87 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 199 | $63.81 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 174 | $55.79 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 164 | $52.50 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 158 | $50.72 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 152 | $48.87 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 97 | $31.00 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 82 | $26.29 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $19.38 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $17.05 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $15.02 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $14.18 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $13.97 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $13.45 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $12.12 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $11.29 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $9.16 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $9.01 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-field-tested) | 63.4% | $0.06 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1489685`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1489685)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $9.00 | 88.90% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 4.7% extraordinary 0.0% classified 21.2% restricted 0.6% red 2.5% Ancient 3.4% #d32ee6 4.2% Rare 63.4%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.90 on average: an expected loss of $11.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt